“All this makes the CHF a bit of a sitting duck”…
Category: economy
Gradually And Then Suddenly
“But, hey, we’re hitting our numbers just fine as it stands and, if you hadn’t noticed, our stock price hit a new high yesterday. Why mess up a good thing?”
‘Billions And Billions And Billions’: ECB, BoJ, And Your Full Week Ahead Preview
If you didn’t get your fill of hand-wringing over DM central banks last week, then you’re in luck…
Progressivity Ultimately Comes At Its Own Expense
“In this way, the middle class begins to capture an increasing proportion of the benefits of social spending, leaving less for welfare services targeted exclusively at the poorest.”
O, Canada! China?! Yellen Yellin’: Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, well this should be an interesting week. We’ll get the BoC, which will make
BofAML: ‘Simply Said’, Shit Just Isn’t That Volatile
You know, at a certain point this just becomes laughable and almost not worth mentioning.
Jobs Report Beats, But Average Hourly Earnings Misses
U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 222k; Unemp. Rate at 4.4%
Avg. hourly earnings 0.2% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
Goldman Asks The Big Question: What Does The Opioid Epidemic Mean For The Economy?
“By now most people have seen at least one astonishing headline about the opioid epidemic: Opioid abuse kills about 100 Americans per day. There are as many opioid prescriptions written annually in the US as there are adults. With just 5% of the world’s population, the US consumes 80% of its opioids.”
Nomura: 3 Ways The ‘Goldilocks’ Market Could End (Now Cue The 3 Bears)
“Markets have been pricing in a Goldilocks scenario: benign growth, low inflation and slow central banks and therefore high valuations and low implied volatility.”
“A Major, Serious” Situation In Japan, PMIs Galore, And A Deadline For Qatar
Ok, so Shinzo Abe’s LDP suffered a stunning loss in Tokyo assembly elections over the weekend,
Jobs Report, Chilled Urine, And Kashkari’s Rib Roast: Full Week Ahead Preview
If you were following along last week, then you already know what to look for
And God Said “Let There Be Data: And There Was Data.”
It’s Friday and God said, “let there be data: and there was data.” Let’s start
Will This Be The Longest Expansion In US History? Spoiler Alert: Pray For Tax Cuts
“Beneath this optimism, however, we are struggling with narrowing profit margins and a flattening yield curve. These factors typically occur at the later stages of a business cycle.”
A Contrarian View On The Next Recession Consistent With Historical Precedent
“The most frequent contributors to modern recessions have been monetary policy tightening and oil price shocks, with the former in response to inflation that often gained momentum from the latter.”
“Do You Ever Have Déjà Vu, Mrs. Lancaster?”: Oil And The “Slippery Slope”
“I don’t think so, but I can check with the kitchen”…
Russell Shuffle Day, Brexit Anniversary, & Crude Carnage
It’s Russell reshuffle day, which means equities will likely be jarred out of any summer
“Hakuna Matata”?
“In our opinion, this is not dangerous market complacency but a reflection of an abnormally tranquil macro environment, with a benign economic outlook, very supportive financial conditions, and lower political risks”…
Guest Post: The Reverse Tepper Moment
“In the current environment, we have the opposite situation. Either the economy rolls over (which should be bad for stocks), or it bounces, at which point the Federal Reserve continues on its tightening path (which could also be bad for stocks).”
Guest Post: Heroin & Non-Consensual Capitalism
“Three decades of heroin price history parallel the transformation of the neoliberal state and society. It tells an interesting story of business, politics, economics, globalization, and governmentality.”
Full Week Ahead Preview: In Search Of “Missingflation”
Markets will get a well-deserved break from scheduled event risks in the days ahead after
One Strategist Thinks You Should Ignore The “Prophets Of Doom”
“The Fed’s decision to tighten rates in the face of sluggish growth and limp inflation has encouraged a narrative that they are embarking on a policy error, with the flattening of the yield curve cited as a primary piece of evidence. Upon closer inspection, however, the prognostications of peril appear wide of the mark.”
This Key Indicator Says A Make-Or-Break Moment Is Upon Us
Yeah so the Citi Economic Surprise Index has become the 800-pound gorilla in the room and it’s not hard to see why – especially when you look at it next to what rates seem to be saying about the economic outlook…
The Day After: Yellen’s Big Mistake
So here we are, the day after a Fed hike that was supposed to (and
Before The Fed: China?! “An Illegal Siege” On Qatar! Crude Carnage. Oh, My.
Yeah, so this afternoon the Fed will almost surely hike and folks will be looking
One Bank Sums Things Up: “Equities Are The Last One Standing”
This is something I hope you already know.
Everything You Need To Know For The Week Ahead
Well, it’s Sunday which means normally, you’d be thinking about Monday, but this weekend you
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