As you might’ve noticed, the bond rally — already one of the more impressive in
Category: Duly Noted
About That ‘Sell SPX In Every Scenario’ Headline
Headed into the December FOMC meeting, there was some (ok, a lot) of chatter to
Fearless Fear Gauge?
Headed into the final FOMC meeting of 2023, there was a bull market in allegations
Snapshotting The Shifting Buyer Base For US Treasurys
Beginning in early August, market participants began to obsess over the shifting buyer base for
Is The Optimistic Scenario Already In The Price?
“We believe much of the optimistic scenario is already reflected in US equity prices today.”
US Stocks See More Santa Flows Amid Sentiment Shift
US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds enjoyed an eighth straight inflow over the latest weekly
Money Market Fund AUM Swells Further. RRP In Focus
Money market fund assets ballooned by another $61.7 billion over the latest reporting period, data
Market Fears Melt-Up More Than Selloff
Despite the ongoing rally at the long-end of the Treasury curve (which was risk asset
‘Tectonic’ CTA Shift Drove Rates Reversal, Bond Rally
Two months ago, the US long-end couldn’t sustain a bid to save its life and
‘Tactical Specialist’ Says Rally Drivers ‘Absolutely Out Of Gas’
I spent a lot of time last week discussing the flow drivers behind November’s historic
Stocks’ Fate Seen Hinging On Cycle Runway
US rates bear flattened ahead of this week’s key macro data, perhaps not surprising on
US Stocks Extend Inflow Streak Amid Dramatic Sentiment Shift
US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds took in more than $8 billion over the latest
Money Market AUM Surges To Yet Another New Record
Money market funds took in a dramatic $73 billion in the eight-day “week” to November
No Bears Allowed. Literally
Don’t be garish. Don’t be bearish. That was the message to employees at China International
Bond Bonanza
I spent the better part of last month calling for a bond rally. Duration was
In Rates: ‘Imminent And Enormous Short-Squeeze Risk’
“Simply put, this fattens the right-tail of the US economic soft landing scenario,” Nomura’s Charlie
Unfazed Treasury Market Underscores Regime Shift
Treasurys were mostly unfazed early this week despite a mixed reception for the front-loaded supply
CTAs: A ‘Tail’ Of Two Drawdowns
If you’re searching for the quintessential manifestation of the macro-policy about-face behind November’s “everything rally”
Will Higher Rates Ever Matter For Big Business Bottom Lines?
Here’s an idea: Equities have already priced in the drag from a higher cost of
Hedge Fund ‘Crowding’ Hits Record Amid Mega-Cap Rally
Earlier this week, in one of the dailies, I included a chart depicting record hedge
Popular Strategist Reveals Top 10 Trades For 2024
On Tuesday, BofA’s Savita Subramanian made the case for S&P 5,000 in 2024. Suffice to say
Investors Say No Thanks To TIPS
The Treasury auction drama continued on Tuesday with a tailing 10-year TIPS sale. I should
Here’s How Fed Balance Sheet Runoff Ends
Last week, I noted that ongoing drain from the Fed’s RRP facility telegraphed the end
Can Argentina Really Dollarize?
In the wake of Javier Milei’s landmark election in Argentina, focus has turned to his
Money Fund AUM Hits Another Record. RRP Drain Starts Clock On QT End
Money market fund assets scaled yet another new peak in the week to November 15,
Wall Street’s Most Famous Bear Explains How Stocks Avoided The Worst
Contracting liquidity was supposed to pressure US equities during the dog days of summer and
Alternative Scenarios
I doubt I’m telling readers anything they don’t already know when I say year-ahead outlook
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