On the heels of a remarkable seven-week run for equities and amid what’s setting up to be a solid December for US shares, many Wall Street house calls implying modest gains for the S&P 500 in 2024 are at risk of being eclipsed. Some imminently.

As for year-end 2024 targets which suggest downside for US shares over the next 12 months, the melt-up has the potential to render some of the more bearish forecasts far-fetched.

To be sure, we’re not into far-fetched territory yet vis-à-vis the lowest 2024 SPX targets. The index is ~4,750 as of this writing, and the lowest target on the Street for 2024 is 4,200. 12% downside is hardly inconceivable, but you get the point: Stocks are running away to the upside.

I’ve suggested we’re in the process of witnessing a new “strategist short squeeze,” wherein Wall Street’s top-down house calls are reset higher, emboldening investors further in what could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In light of the above, a few readers have asked for a summary of Wall Street house SPX calls for 2024. The figure below shows the point forecasts by bank, with labels for the individual analysts.

JPMorgan has the most bearish call, down at 4,200. The most bullish calls belong to Tom Lee and John Stoltzfus (at Oppenheimer).

Another simple way to view this is by reference to where the index trades currently. The figure below shows the percent gain/loss implied by various targets. Again, I used 4,750 as the reference.

As things stand, JPMorgan is calling for double-digit downside and twice the decline forecasted by Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson.

Needless to say, 2024 will, like all years, come with surprises aplenty and to the extent any of these forecasts are spot-on this time next year, luck will play a big role.

And, as ever, Lady Luck won’t get much in the way of thanks for her contributions to any forecasting success Wall Street may (or may not) enjoy in the new year.