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Category: credit

And The “Biggest Risk” To Credit Markets Is…

June 30, 2017June 30, 2017

“Oil can be an issue this summer if prices fall below $40/bbl, but we are more worried about…”

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Barclays Sarcastically Asks: “What Could Possibly Go Wrong?”

June 24, 2017

“The reality is that there are many risks on the horizon as we write”…

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This Is The “Most Vulnerable” Index In Credit To Macro Risk

June 23, 2017

“Quite in contrast to the past couple of years, this index now appears to be the most vulnerable to macro risks compared to other benchmarks in credit.”

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“Hakuna Matata”?

June 22, 2017

“In our opinion, this is not dangerous market complacency but a reflection of an abnormally tranquil macro environment, with a benign economic outlook, very supportive financial conditions, and lower political risks”…

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Chart Of The Day: Asset Prices In The Trump Era

June 22, 2017

See if you can spot what’s still hanging on for dear life at record highs/tights despite lackluster incoming data and central bank tightening…

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While You Were Watching The VIX, Credit Did This…

June 16, 2017June 16, 2017

“While the collapse of the VIX to multi-decade lows has garnered headlines recently, implied volatilities on US and European credit indices have quietly reached new lows as well. The one-month at-the-money implied volatilities on US and European credit indices have all collapsed to their tightest levels since 2008.”

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And Credit Investors’ Biggest Worry Is…

June 15, 2017

Spoiler alert.

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Just 3 Charts…

June 8, 2017

Spot the odd one out…

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BofAML: “Warning: If US Rates Market Is Right, Everything Else Is Mispriced”

June 6, 2017June 6, 2017

“The fact that UST 10y rates have traded in a very tight range for the last two months has been interpreted as a reassuring signal for carry trades everywhere. In fact it should be a warning signal.”

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“As The Beast Sleeps, The Tendency Is Toward Complacency”

May 26, 2017

“Yet there are indications that the marketplace is growing comfortable, perhaps too comfortable, with the calm.”

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“If VIX Can Do It…” – One Bank Asks If IG Credit Is A Sure Bet “Cheap Short”

May 22, 2017

“Has the so-called floor for IG risen since 2014? And if it has, does it represent a cheap short at these levels?”

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Wednesday’s Equity Bloodbath Produced A 94th Percentile Moment

May 20, 2017May 20, 2017

“The outperformance has only been greater in 6% of the sessions in two years.”

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Trader: What You’ve Seen Unwound Is “Just The Tip Of The Iceberg”

May 18, 2017May 18, 2017

“It’s vital, therefore, to remind yourself that these moves, while portrayed as dramatic, represent only the very tip of the iceberg of positions built up over a very long period of time and in massive size.”

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“Max Long Liquidity,” A “Bonanza,” & The Coolest Thing You’ll Read On Monday

May 8, 2017May 8, 2017

“Liquidity and tight bid/offers in the CDS index market has been pivotal for a number of investors to use the CDS product as a risk allocation tool, rather than a hedging tool that has been traditionally used.”

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Just One Quick Chart

April 25, 2017

Just a Tuesday quickie.

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Goldman Has A “Compelling” Trade Idea, So Listen Up

April 10, 2017

“For investors looking for a macro hedge, credit offers more attractive hedging opportunities. For investors adding to bullish positions, equity offers more attractive buying opportunities.”

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Chart Check: Q1’s Outperformers & Underperformers

April 3, 2017

Q1 – in aesthetically pleasing hues of blue.

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Goldman: Q1 “Was A Quarter To Own Risk” – Here’s What Comes Next

April 3, 2017

“Which of these divergences will hold going forward?”

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Did Credit Investors Just Give Up On The Trump Agenda?

March 31, 2017

A couple of days ago in “One Word And One Word Only: ‘Duration’,” we noted

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Dear Donald Trump: Explain This Chart

March 27, 2017

“There is another worry on the horizon”…

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This Is What Happens When Americans Don’t Get Their Tax Refunds

March 13, 2017

I think it’s safe to say we all knew that Americans aren’t exactly in the

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Chart Check: See No Evil…

March 2, 2017

What political uncertainty?

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An Eerie Parallel

February 11, 2017

“This ‘treading water’ spread action for the credit market is in pretty sharp contrast to an equity market that has been rallying to new all time highs”…

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The “Scariest Chart In The World”

January 23, 2017January 23, 2017

One thing everyone wants to know: with all the geopolitical uncertainty out there, why is the

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No Liquidity, No Cash, No Fun

January 23, 2017January 23, 2017

Oh, and here’s the worst part: you see how there’s no market for these bonds? Well when people start selling the ETFs, you’d better hope fund managers aren’t depending on cash balances to meet redemptions, because…

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Liquidity Lapse: Don’t Say You Weren’t Warned

January 10, 2017

The liquidity picture for corporate cash bonds is looking increasingly ugly.

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Thursday Chart Check (Smell Test Edition)

January 5, 2017

What happens when this mean reverts?

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