“Bond momentum, not equity momentum, is the one to watch going forward.”
Category: 10Y
Stocks Super Happy, Oil “Flirts With Collapse,” UK Brexits, France Wonders Why No One Voted
Generally speaking, it was a quiet overnight session as traders look forward to a light
One Strategist Thinks You Should Ignore The “Prophets Of Doom”
“The Fed’s decision to tighten rates in the face of sluggish growth and limp inflation has encouraged a narrative that they are embarking on a policy error, with the flattening of the yield curve cited as a primary piece of evidence. Upon closer inspection, however, the prognostications of peril appear wide of the mark.”
Peter Pan’s Revenge: Kuroda Thinks You’re Crazy To Think BoJ Is Not Still Crazy
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it.”
Trader: We’re Playing Tug-Of-War With A Starfish And There’s A “Reptilian Aura” To It
“Anyone who claims to know how this populism, saber-rattling and scandals will play out is fooling you as well as themselves.”
The Day After: Yellen’s Big Mistake
So here we are, the day after a Fed hike that was supposed to (and
Traders, Analysts “A Bit Surprised” Yellen Wasn’t More Dovish
“This has apparently come as a bit of a surprise to a market that had greeted this morning’s CPI report as potentially a ‘game changer.â€
When To Go “Bear Hunting” In Bonds
“I’ll be focusing on that 2H pricing for clues as to when the odds are good to step in front of the raging bond bull — and when it’s a good time to go bear hunting.”
Gold Surges After Dismal Data; Do You Like Your Rate Hikes Dovish?
They better figure out how to make this hike extra dovish.
Before The Fed: China?! “An Illegal Siege” On Qatar! Crude Carnage. Oh, My.
Yeah, so this afternoon the Fed will almost surely hike and folks will be looking
“On What Basis?!” One Trader Demands To Know Why You’re Short Treasurys
“U.S. Treasury bears haven’t come up with a compelling new argument in months, nor a reason why any of the old, stale logic will suddenly become valid now”…
“I’m The One Who Got Us Into This Mess,” A Brent Death Cross, And “The Day Before Tomorrow”
Today is all about tomorrow…
What A “Buzz Kill”: Tech Selloff Goes Global
“There’s a chance U.S. internet technology stocks that have propelled a global stock rally will now serve as a buzz kill.”
Trader: “The Problem Is Ours”
“James Comey’s testimony has been portrayed as the making or breaking of the current presidency. Total vindication or that Perry Mason moment when he tearfully breaks down under questioning, repudiates his opening statement and confesses all. No one listening in today is going to budge one inch in their appraisal of our state of affairs.”
China? China! Kuroda Contemplates His Exit, And Other Overnight Shenanigans
It’s “Super Thursday” and although the real fireworks (if there are any) aren’t set to
SocGen’s Big Call: It’s Time To “Make Reflation Great Again!”
“Our reading of the US situation is that, while persistently worrying at the political and diplomatic levels, it is close to Goldilocks at the economic level. The sub-2.5% GDP growth allows the Fed to tighten “only†moderately, and this is a clear burden to the US dollar and a trigger for risk-taking elsewhere.”
Terrorist “Troublemakers” Storm Overnight Session, Murder 12 In Iran Ahead Of “Super Thursday”
Well, it was a quiet overnight session right up until around 2 a.m. EST when
The Mystery Of The Rising Nikkei
“The strong correlation of USD/JPY and the Nikkei is a well-known phenomenon — so much so that it impacts the relative pricing of yen- and dollar-denominated Nikkei futures. When the fortunes of the two diverge, as they have recently, the market takes notice.”
BofAML: “Warning: If US Rates Market Is Right, Everything Else Is Mispriced”
“The fact that UST 10y rates have traded in a very tight range for the last two months has been interpreted as a reassuring signal for carry trades everywhere. In fact it should be a warning signal.”
Safety Sought: Yen Rallies As Markets Nervously Eye Potentially Dangerous Thursday
So on Sunday, in our week ahead preview, we noted that Thursday would bring a
Deutsche Bank: “Path Of Least Resistance” Is For Everything To Rally
“The conclusion is that the Fed can’t do a lot that appears credible to the market. The path of least resistance is therefore a soggy dollar, low yields and robust equities.”
SocGen Throws In Towel On Treasury Forecast, Blames “Trump’s Russia Links”
Do you see what happens when you bet on a shrieking pumpkin with a Twitter addiction?
Nikkei Tops 20,000 On Batshit Crazy BoJ Balance Sheet; Global Stocks Rise Ahead Of Jobs
Well, the Nikkei crossed 20,000 for the first time since 2015 overnight. And really, why
Albert Edwards: “The Reflation Trade Is Trump-Inspired Fake News”
“The last time volatility in the US bond market was this low (and complacency this high), 10y yields spiked up some 150bp in only four months as part of Bernanke’s ‘Taper Tantrum’. “
Guest Post: Are Stock Traders Actually The Pessimists Here?
“Could it be utility stocks smell the coming economic slowdown ahead of the bond market?”
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