We should’ve given the monetarists more credit. That was one ostensible lesson from the pandemic
Author: therealheisenberg
US Small Businesses Stare Down Worst Credit Crunch In Decades
America’s small business owners are still “cynical.” That’s according to the latest vintage of the
Hikes, Specs And Techs
Tech shares may be “over-discounting” prospective additional relief from bond yields, traders are increasingly convinced
Are 2023 Fed Cuts ‘Inevitable’?
I suppose this goes without saying, but US rates are more pessimistic about the macro
Americans Most Pessimistic On Credit Access In A Decade
Americans harbored the most grim perceptions of credit availability in at least a decade during
Is The Banking Crisis Over? Ask Google
I’ve spent a lot of time over the last four weeks discussing the psychological side
SVB And The Anarchists’ Dream
Seemingly every day, somebody, somewhere, publishes a new postmortem on last month’s turmoil in the
Macron Hints At De-Dollarization, ‘Autonomy’ From US After Xi Meet
Emmanuel Macron doesn’t want to pick sides. During interviews published Sunday, but conducted while he
Forget Bretton Woods 2 And 3. Try ‘Deep Dark Woods’ Instead
If you’ve never been to Asheville, North Carolina, but you’ve heard of it, I’m not
Backup Plans And Alternate Realities
The outcome of the Fed’s next meeting will, for all intents and purposes and assuming
Bank Lending Plunge, Deposit Flight Raise ‘Sudden Stop’ Concerns
As you might’ve heard, commercial bank deposits in the US fell a tenth week late
Soft Landing Comes Back Into View Despite Bank Drama
In the latest weekly+, I suggested that, for the first time this cycle, the incoming
US Revolving Credit Rises 23rd Month As Rates Hit 20%
Americans’ revolving credit balances rose the least in nearly two years in February, data released
Why ‘Fixing’ The RRP ‘Problem’ Isn’t Straightforward
Over the past several weeks, the RRP situation, and the discussion around “what to do”
Hike In May And Go Away?
For what it’s worth, which wasn’t much on a holiday Friday, the market reaction to
Solid Jobs Report Clears Fed For Another Hike
The US added slightly more jobs than expected in March, and the unemployment rate moved
Meanwhile, In Japan…
“Consumer prices aren’t going back to constantly falling below 2%,” Haruhiko Kuroda said Friday, speaking
Emergency Fed Borrowing Elevated, But ‘Stable’
Stress across the US banking system might’ve abated in recent weeks, but liquidity demand remains
Merciless Money Market Magnet Attracts Another $49 Billion
Almost $50 billion poured into money market funds in the week to April 5, data
Recession Stars ‘Already Aligned,’ JPMorgan Says
Don’t lose the plot. And, unfortunately, this plot dead ends in recession. That was one
Are Company Analysts Pessimistic Enough Yet?
For much of the last year, company analysts were derided (sometimes mercilessly, and by their
Jobless Claims Surge On Revisions. Tech Job Cuts Jump 38,487%
Initial US jobless claims printed well above estimates in figures released Thursday. Taken at face
The Profit Recession Is Finally Here (But Don’t Tell Anyone)
You wouldn’t necessarily know it from “Greedflation” banter and the perception that corporations are engaged
In New Zealand, A Moment Of Truth
With the caveat that I’ve never conducted any sort of systematic demographic analysis of my
Behind The Scenes Of Last Month’s Snapback Stock Rally
Market narration over the past month (and, really, over the past year) has revolved primarily
$5 Trillion Money Market ‘Bubble’ Spotlights Fed’s $2 Trillion RRP Garage
Last week, I suggested the Fed is attempting a difficult tightrope act with regard to
A Tale Of Two Services Surveys
The US services sector put on the brakes last month. Or sped up. It depends
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