Over the past 30 years, S&P 500 profit margins more than doubled, from 5% to
Author: therealheisenberg
Target Delivers Ambiguous Results With Consumers ‘Under Pressure’
Sales at Target slowed in March and decelerated further in April, the company said Wednesday,
A.I. Everywhere
Sam Altman expressed concern about the A.I. programs he’s developing during remarks to US lawmakers
Famous Quant Warns Of ‘Rude Awakening’ In ‘Coming Vol Flare-Ups’
“Bonds imply a recession.” So said JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic, who’s maintaining a
McElligott Breaks Down ‘Really Fascinating’ Equities Vol Dynamics
The equities vol space is quite interesting these days — or “really fascinating,” as Nomura’s
Americans Herded Into New Construction Amid Acute Lack Of Resale Homes
You surely didn’t “hear it here first,” but you’ve certainly heard it here a lot:
Tech Allocations Surge As Funds Pile Into World’s Most Crowded Trade
Given that the small cohort of large companies we generally refer to as “mega-tech” is
‘That’s It?’ Markets Incredulous At Lackluster Chinese Economy
China’s economic recovery is no recovery at all. Last week, I called+ the situation “vexingly
US Retail Sales Surprisingly Buoyant Under The Hood
Headline US retail sales rose just half as much as expected in April, but underlying
Growth Outlook Poor, But ‘Soft Landing’ Is Consensus For $700 Billion In AUM
Tuesday’s media spin on the May vintage of a closely-watched fund manager survey lacked important
Kolanovic Laments Stocks’ ‘Complete Disregard’ For Macro, Policy Signals
Equities are disconnected both from macro and policy realities. That’s according to JPMorgan analysts led
Americans Always Pay Down Credit Cards In Q1. But Not This Year…
Typically, Americans’ credit card balances decline during the first quarter of a calendar year. Not in
At Least One Famous Billionaire Is Bullish
For what it’s worth — which is either nothing at all or quite a lot,
Wall Street’s Ardent Bear Is Sticking With It
Headed into this year, the buy-side had (begrudgingly, perhaps) come around to a pretty bearish
Why Stocks Could Fall 18% Despite Fed Pause
You’ve heard it before: “Sell the last hike.” That’s a familiar refrain for those who
Two Men’s Pride Threatens ‘Inflection Point’ For Dollar Hegemony
Joe Biden described himself as a “congenital optimist” while speaking to reporters about the debt
Out Of US Stocks, Into Cash And Bonds
If you’re keeping track at home, outflows from US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds continued
Turkey Tests Its Strongman
“Very ridiculous.” That’s how Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the notion he might refuse to step
Traders Eye D.C. Drama, Fed Speakers, Housing, China In New Week
Retail sales, housing data and debt ceiling drama will dominate the market narrative in the
Profits And Prophecies
With 90% of market cap reporting, earnings season in the US is over for all
The Lending Standards Canary
The consensus narrative around the latest vintage of the Fed’s senior loan officer survey is
Saved By The Beveridge Curve (This Time Is Different)
This time is different. No, seriously. It is. The question is whether it’ll stay different.
Fade The Neon Swans?
There’s “neon swan” potential lurking in America’s debt ceiling crisis. Notwithstanding one former president’s unorthodox
Fed Gets Disastrous Sentiment Report As Inflation Expectations Jump
In a decidedly unwelcome development reminiscent of a fateful Friday in June of 2022, University
It’s (Not) The Economy, Stupid
Do Americans even care about the economy anymore? You’d think the answer is (still) a
Bear Echoes
“2023 is in no way comparable to 2008.” How many times have you heard that
Money Market Assets Hit Fresh Record. Fed Backstop Usage Rises Anew
Inflows to money market funds slowed in the week to May 10, but total assets
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