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Author: therealheisenberg

Meta For The Record

February 2, 2024February 2, 2024

By noon on Friday, Meta was on track for a record. Not just a record-high

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2 Comments on Meta For The Record

Blistering Jobs Report Blindsides US Rates

February 2, 2024February 4, 2024

Needless to say, Friday’s astoundingly strong read on the US labor market rippled across the

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1 Comment on Blistering Jobs Report Blindsides US Rates

JOBS!

February 2, 2024February 8, 2024

The US economy added far (far) more jobs than expected last month and annual revisions

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13 Comments on JOBS!

Bubble Spotting

February 2, 2024February 3, 2024

The price action in 2024 suggests we’re either coming out of a recession or in

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3 Comments on Bubble Spotting

MMF AUM Hits $6 Trillion Milestone. BTFP Borrowing Falls With Arb Dead

February 1, 2024

Money market funds emphatically snapped a two-week streak of outflows with a large haul that

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Amazon, Apple, Meta Tout Results With Tech Rally On The Line

February 1, 2024February 2, 2024

Amazon reported what the company described as a record-breaking holiday quarter in results released after

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9 Comments on Amazon, Apple, Meta Tout Results With Tech Rally On The Line

The Commercial Real Estate Reckoning Is Here

February 1, 2024March 4, 2024

The best argument against the contention that the next financial crisis will be triggered by

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13 Comments on The Commercial Real Estate Reckoning Is Here

America’s Factory Recession Likely Over. Cue Higher Prices

February 1, 2024February 2, 2024

The marquee gauge of US factory activity printed well ahead of estimates on Thursday, suggesting

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1 Comment on America’s Factory Recession Likely Over. Cue Higher Prices

Fed Gets More Dovish Data As ULC Undershoots, Claims Jump Again

February 1, 2024February 2, 2024

After rising the most in three years during the prior quarter, US labor productivity notched

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1 Comment on Fed Gets More Dovish Data As ULC Undershoots, Claims Jump Again

BoE Projects Above-Target Inflation Through 2026 Even As It Softens Stance

February 1, 2024February 1, 2024

The Bank of England kept rates on hold Thursday as expected, but the dissents included

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‘Too Soon For All-Clear’ As European Inflation Comes In Slightly Warm

February 1, 2024February 1, 2024

For what it’s worth — a mention, at least — inflation in Europe was a

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Wanted: More Confidence

January 31, 2024February 1, 2024

The Fed’s looking for “greater confidence” that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%. That

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6 Comments on Wanted: More Confidence

Fed Pushes Back Against March Rate Cut Speculation

January 31, 2024February 8, 2024

The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday. Obviously. January’s gathering was a placeholder meeting as

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2 Comments on Fed Pushes Back Against March Rate Cut Speculation

What’s Behind New York Community Bancorp’s Very Bad Day

January 31, 2024March 4, 2024

The Fed could’ve done without a flare-up in the heretofore dormant regional banking crisis ahead

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12 Comments on What’s Behind New York Community Bancorp’s Very Bad Day

Powell Gets Good News On Fed’s Favorite Pay Gauge

January 31, 2024February 1, 2024

When it comes to measures of compensation watched closely by Fed officials, and specifically by

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Treasury Refunding Event Risk Clears Without Drama

January 31, 2024February 8, 2024

Janet Yellen surprised markets earlier this week when Treasury cut its borrowing estimate for the

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Private Hiring Slows, But ADP Details Favorable For Soft Landing Crowd

January 31, 2024January 31, 2024

US private sector employers added 107,000 jobs in January, ADP said Wednesday. That was far

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Xi’s Stock Market Hits Five-Year Low As PMIs Trundle

January 31, 2024January 31, 2024

It’s not working out for Xi Jinping. Not on the macro-market front, anyway. PMI data

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5 Comments on Xi’s Stock Market Hits Five-Year Low As PMIs Trundle

Microsoft And Alphabet: Good Enough?

January 30, 2024January 31, 2024

Microsoft and Alphabet delivered what looked to be decent results after the bell in the

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1 Comment on Microsoft And Alphabet: Good Enough?

Melt-Up Paranoia Manifests In ‘Incredibly Abnormal’ Dealer Positioning

January 30, 2024January 30, 2024

For the better part of a dozen years, the implicit message from central banks to

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2 Comments on Melt-Up Paranoia Manifests In ‘Incredibly Abnormal’ Dealer Positioning

Kolanovic Warns Stocks Now Price No Chance Of Recession

January 30, 2024

Equities and credit are pricing no risk of recession. And that could be problematic. So

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US Homes Still Expensive, But Main Street Gains $40k In Purchasing Power

January 30, 2024January 31, 2024

If you’re looking to buy a home in the US (or in any advanced economy,

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US Job Openings Stop Cooperating, But Quits Hit Three-Year Low

January 30, 2024January 31, 2024

Job vacancies across the world’s largest economy rose above nine million for the first time

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Why Are The Saudis Canceling A Major Oil Expansion Plan?

January 30, 2024January 31, 2024

The Saudis are worried about oil demand. Or maybe they’re trying something new to prop

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2 Comments on Why Are The Saudis Canceling A Major Oil Expansion Plan?

European Economy Stuck In Doldrums For Fifth Quarter

January 30, 2024January 30, 2024

Technically, Europe’s not in a recession. In every other sense, it is. The eurozone economy

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McElligott Revisits The Thanksgiving Turkey Parable

January 29, 2024January 30, 2024

“We all should understand that generic / naked vol-selling is the proverbial ‘picking up pennies

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Yellen Comes Through, Cuts US Borrowing Estimate

January 29, 2024January 30, 2024

Treasury’s quarterly financing estimate came in below the headline figure tipped three months ago, in

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6 Comments on Yellen Comes Through, Cuts US Borrowing Estimate

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  • The Arbitrageur

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Monthly Letters

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To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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