The Pentagon’s “assembling a massive arsenal” in the Gulf, where American forces will be “fully in place” and ready to join the IDF in a new round of strikes against Iran by early next month.

That’s according to multiple sources who spoke to The New York Times for a piece describing “specific plans” for what’d be a truncated, but unsparing, show of force targeting energy infrastructure, nuclear sites and the IRGC’s missile and drone production network, which is at least partially intact despite repeated US claims to the contrary.

Sources identified only as “Western officials” told Bloomberg this month that Iran retains the ability to manufacture weapons including ballistic missiles which anyway remain “well stocked.” The IRGC’s replenishment efforts are aided and abetted by noted “humanitarian” Vladimir Putin who, in addition to providing the Guards with targeting assistance for pot shots at US naval vessels, may be sending Iran new missiles.

Separately, The Wall Street Journal said Iran’s taking advantage of the multi-month lull in direct attacks on its homeland to rebuild and repair its missile and drone facilities, while “reinforc[ing] protection around its nuclear sites and other security-related bunkers.”

Donald Trump, who the Times reminded readers vetoed planned strikes this month “when the US and Israeli militaries were nearly ready to attack,” has been told by some advisors that “an intensive three-day campaign could cause enough economic damage to change the Iranian position.”

A quick check on the only available real-time exchange rate monitor for the local currency market suggests the rial’s back near the early-October lows, going for around 2.73 million per dollar. The thinking, as discussed in “Maybe Trump Can Starve Iran Out After All,” is that the Iranian economy’s teetering right on the edge — and that all it’ll take to shift the IRGC’s position is 72 hours of “intensive” bombing.

I, um, doubt that’ll prove to be the case. While I do think Trump can’t wait them out, I don’t think three days of renewed bombing will meaningfully accelerate the process. And as the Times article was keen to point out, the Guards are ready, willing and apparently able, to expand their target set to include — gasp! — regional data centers. (Is nothing sacred?!)

It’s also likely that a fresh round of US-Israeli strikes would further imperil Saudi Arabia’s security situation at a time when civilian sites across the Kingdom are subjected to near daily Houthi attacks. And then there’s the threat to pumping stations along the East-West pipeline, which is just now nearing full capacity again after last month’s drone attacks forced a lengthy shutdown.

There’s a political calculus here. There always is. After a long delay, Trump endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu for next week’s elections in Israel. It’s tempting to suggest that if Netanyahu loses (which is to say if Likud can’t assemble a government), he’ll be constrained in his capacity to perpetuate the war. But that’s not necessarily true.

Assuming the Knesset elections result in a de facto hung parliament where no successor government can be formed, he’ll carry on as caretaker prime minister. If Trump were to strike Iran, and Iran were to lob missiles into Israel, Netanyahu could, as the Times put it, “leverage” the situation “to pressure his rivals into joining a unity government to manage the war,” thereby “extend[ing] his hold on power.”

On Thursday, the Guard’s navy said they struck four vessels in the Gulf for conducting “illegal transfers of oil.” Another three ships ran across mines near the Strait of Hormuz. In the event of additional US “provocations,” American bases in the region will be targeted anew, a statement warned.

Meanwhile, the Basij are taking steps to prepare Iran for the worst. As the Journal article linked above noted, the government’s “sending paramilitary forces to read war stories to kindergartners [and] advertising training [courses] in firing shoulder-mounted antiaircraft missiles.”