Forget “since 2007.” That’s so, um, so earlier this month. It’s all about “since 2004” now.

On Thursday, following what I described, aptly, as one of the worst all around sessions for Treasurys in recent memory, long-end bonds traded heavy again amid fresh threats from Iran and an attendant bump in crude prices.

According to Fars, the Guards are considering strikes on US military targets outside the Gulf, including the joint US-UK military base in Diego Garcia, in the event Iran’s attacked again. The idea, apparently, is to reduce the concentration of American naval assets off Iran’s coast.

The report came as Abbas Araghchi received a scolding from the Guards-controlled Tasnim News. Araghchi, the IRGC said, didn’t “obtain permission from the responsible institutions” before meeting with Steve Witkoff this week.

By “the responsible institutions,” Tasnim of course meant the Guards themselves, which authorized Araghchi to (re)convey Iran’s conditions for a ceasefire but not to engage in new diplomacy. “It is essential,” Tasnim went on, that Araghchi “be held accountable for his wrong action.” What, the article wondered, could he have been thinking to “commit this great mistake?”

I won’t spend too much time on internal Iranian bickering, but I did want to mention the Tasnim piece in the unlikely event Araghchi’s “unauthorized” discussions in New York cost him his job. Any indication that Araghchi’s been demoted would be bullish for crude. And bearish for everything else.

On Thursday, Brent was back above $100. The high was $106 or so, and that put additional upward pressure on long-end bond yields.

The figure above gives you some historical context. The last time 30-year US yields were 5.44%, Lloyd Banks was (however briefly) the most popular act in America, having just sold more than half a million copies of his debut album in the short space of 14 days. (Sadly, his reign at the top of the Billboard 200, and his celebrity in general, lasted just that long.)

The mid-week bond selloff is one of those market events where the plethora of mentionables is such that there’s no way to decide what to highlight first. The US long bond’s highest yield since 2004’s a good place to start, but Wednesday’s high on 10s (~5.15%) and the first breach of 5% for the US five-year (in and around a poorly-received auction) since 2007 are equally notable.

If you were curious, the MOVE’s the highest since late-March.

As the figure shows, Wednesday’s jump was among the five largest this year and rivaled increases seen during the most intense days of the war.

Needless to say, yields on other G7 bonds are rising as well. Benchmark German debt now yields the most since the aftermath of the GFC and 10-year JGB yields were the highest in three decades on Thursday.

“With no clear sign of headway toward a [Mideast] peace deal,” oil rose again and investors “remain focused on the potential for a 90-day ban of diesel exports to feed into inflation even if the move initially provides some relief to domestic energy prices,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen remarked.

“The stock market has thus far absorbed the bond selloff in an orderly fashion, suggest[ing] room for [yields to rise further] before flight-to-quality flows become a true limiting factor,” he added.