May As Well Buy New

Well, at least the new homes are selling. Sort of.

Volatile government data released on Thursday suggested Americans found their way into newly-built single-family residences at the quickest pace since December last month. Consensus was looking for a slowdown versus July’s pace.

“Quick” is a relative term here. 684,000 (the annual rate for August) remained in a range that’s held since early-2023. Historically, that’s a middling pace. Much better than recessions, but nowhere near boom territory.

As the chart text indicates, August’s 6.4% increase was almost surely the result of builders cutting prices and offering incentives to help buyers make the math work.

September’s abysmal report on builder sentiment showed nearly one in four builders cut prices early this month, up from 35% in August. Fully two thirds resorted to sales incentives, up from 63% last month and the highest since December.

The median new home sale price spent a second month below $400,000 in August, Thursday’s government report showed.

As the figure shows, the YoY drop was the seventh in eight months. It was also the largest since last summer.

This marks the first time since 2021 — which is to say the first time since the post-pandemic run up — that the median new home price was below $400,000 for two straight months. At $478,700, the average price was the second-lowest in five years.

With overall prices (i.e., including the resale market, where most sales take place) still climbing, these figures make a strong case for buying new construction.

That is of course if you can stomach the new “aesthetic,” which is a stone veneer front with vinyl on the sides and back in lower-priced neighborhoods and some version of a $750,000 Hardie Board and grey brick “modern farm house” in upper-tier communities.


 

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3 thoughts on “May As Well Buy New”

  1. I realize the housing stock varies by region, but in my city I would far rather buy an old house than a new construction house of equivalent price. The old house will be more desirably located, larger, more attractive, on a larger lot with trees, or all of the above.

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