Who’s Coming To Nashville?

Jesus Christ, maybe I should sell something and buy in Nashville. My aversion to country music and fear of tornados be damned.

According to a Redfin update that crossed my radar on Saturday, home sellers outnumbered buyers in the Music City 2.4 to 1 last month, an astounding statistic that suggests a well-qualified house hunter could drive a very, very hard bargain.

Let me take this opportunity to reiterate that Redfin’s data section is a macro lover’s dream. Their figures are more timely, better researched and far more comprehensive than any other housing market datasets I’ve come across in a decade of writing for public consumption.

Although not every locale’s as buyer-friendly as “Nashvegas,” a return to seven-handle mortgage rates and the associated hit to demand pushed the nationwide buyer-seller imbalance — which was already quite extreme — higher still in August.

As the figure above shows, there were nearly 60% more sellers than buyers last month, a dramatic increase from July’s record-high north of 52%.

If that estimate’s even close to right, buyers have the most leverage since whatever these figures would’ve looked like had the data been available post-subprime collapse.

At the risk of exaggerating, an all-cash buyer in a market like Nashville could conceivably secure the economic equivalent of a 20% discount to original list, inclusive of price cuts, concessions, transaction cost credits and inspection-related leverage. Depending, obviously, on the property and the seller’s circumstances.

The figure below shows you the buyer and seller counts from the same Redfin series.

As you can see from the orange dot, the widening gap was driven in August by a 4% jump in listings, which were the highest in half a dozen years. The number of buyers was more or less unchanged from July’s record low.

Other housing data out this month showed builder sentiment remained severely depressed in September, while an uptick in single-family starts in government data covering August belied a drop in permits and the fewest completions since February of 2019.

“With sellers piling into the market and demand falling flat, today’s house hunters can afford to be choosy,” one of Redfin’s economists told Dana Anderson. “Even during a time when housing costs are elevated, the surplus of sellers over buyers makes it a good time to be a house hunter.”

The only question is: Who’s coming with me to Nashville? They’ve got a Louis, a Gucci, a Christian Louboutin, a D&G, a Saint Laurent, two professional sports teams and, as of last year, a trio of Michelin starred restaurants.


 

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