Chris Waller to the rescue. We’ve seen that before. We’ve also seen the opposite. So count your blessings.

Way back on July 13, ahead of the last FOMC meeting, Waller catalyzed a hawkish repricing at the US front-end when he suggested the Fed might have to “consider tightening policy in the near-term” in the event of “another hot reading on core inflation.”

The very next day, the BLS delivered a veritable godsend in the form of a small month-to-month decline on core CPI for June, thereby affording Kevin Warsh the air cover he needed to hold rates steady against the better judgment of restive hawks.

If you believed eschewing a hike in July was the right move, virtually all of the data received since that month’s policy gathering supports the case for a hold at this month’s meeting. That, along with politicization considerations, is why I’m inclined to doubt the idea that Warsh intends to follow through on the threat implicit in his Jackson Hole speech.

That’s the context for Waller’s remarks to Reuters on Thursday, when Chris suggested he won’t support a hike this month in the absence of an adverse CPI update on September 11. “We will get another inflation reading before the next meeting,” he said. “[M]y decision will be heavily influenced by what we learn about August inflation.”

As the figure shows, markets got the message. At the lows, twos rallied 8bps, the most since — ironically — the above-mentioned June inflation readout. Market-implied September Fed hike odds, which were as high as 80% post-Jackson Hole, were back to ~a coin toss.

Waller’s opinion matters above and beyond his board seat. He was considered a candidate for Jerome Powell’s job. Despite a plain-as-day affinity for Donald Trump, Waller had no real chance at getting the nod, though, precisely because he was the best choice among those in the running. In Trump’s America, the more qualified you are for a given job, the less likely you are to get it.

In his Thursday remarks, Waller made his views about the September meeting quite explicit. “If there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level,” he said. “But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.”

He went on to describe any hypothetical hike as “a small adjustment,” as distinct from the beginning of a new tightening cycle. That too could read as dovish.

Bottom line: The BLS would have to tip a “high” 0.3% MoM core CPI increase for August next Friday for Waller to consider a hike. As he put it Thursday, “I’m going to paraphrase John Lennon here: Give disinflation a chance.”

(Narrator: We’ve been waiting five years, Chris. And if the wait time on “peace” is any indication, 2% inflation might be some way off.)