Waning.

That’s private-sector hiring in the US.

I’m not breaking any news here. The ADP headline for July printed a six-month low and the BLS private payrolls series added just 60,000 jobs across June and July combined.

So why bring it up? Because it’s a Thursday in August and I’m trying to fill up space. (Whaddya want from me?) But also because ADP’s weekly update on average private hiring in America slipped below 10,000 for the four weeks ended July 25 (I know, I know: This “high frequency” series isn’t exactly real-time).

As the figure shows, this tally, which ADP began releasing publicly late last year, has fallen for six consecutive weeks. It’s the lowest since January.

“[T]he consumer rebounded well in Q2 and the prevailing perception remains that as long as equity valuations remain lofty, the wealth effect will continue to support consumption,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen said Thursday. “The caveat there is that a materially dimmer employment outlook could function as an inhibition for spending,” he added, referencing the same weekly ADP series.

Meanwhile, initial US jobless claims, despite coming in ahead of consensus in Thursday’s update, were low enough that the four-week average stayed below 200,000 for a second week. That’s notable.

As the figure shows, this marks the first time since 2022 that the four-week average for the initial filers series was sub-200k for consecutive weeks.

“The initial claims series has been consistently low in outright terms, a trend that has been somewhat at odds with the weakness seen in the headline payrolls figures,” Lyngen went on, in the same note mentioned above. “This dynamic leads us to be less focused on claims as the low outright levels persist.”

If you’re curious as to the last time (i.e., prior to the 2022 event annotated on the chart) that the four-week average of initial filers was below 200,000 for consecutive weeks, the answer’s 1969.