There was more good news on the inflation front in the US Wednesday.
A day on from a very favorable CPI report (or very favorable under the circumstances, anyway), the BLS said wholesale prices fell in June from May.
The -0.3% MoM decline was the first since August. May’s MoM print was revised to reflect a much slower advance versus April.
The YoY pace decelerated to 5.5%, the slowest since March.
Needless to say, the decline for June was attributable to a drop on the goods side, which was in turn down to the largest MoM decline on the energy gauge since December of 2022. The food index posted its first monthly decline in four.
The measure that strips out food and energy (i.e., core PPI) posted a 0.2% advance, slower than expected. Like the headline index, the prior month’s core readout was revised sharply lower.
Another notable from the release: The YoY pace for the core gauge slipped to 4.7%, four-tenths lower than expected and the first monthly decline on the annual rate since last summer.
The soft release pounds nails into an already-shut July rate-hike coffin. Kevin Warsh on Tuesday told US lawmakers he isn’t inclined to put any emphasis on one data point (or any data points for that matter), but let’s not kid ourselves: Mr. I Don’t Trust These Datasets is elated with this week’s benign inflation readouts.
Now, when Warsh is asked at this month’s post-meeting press conference, “Why didn’t you hike rates?”, he has an answer. Assuming, of course, he holds a press conference.



Well, the data would suggest telling the hawks to stop circling for now. Sometimes doing nothing is appropriate.