‘As Soon As This Weekend’: Iran’s Out Of Time

16 thoughts on “‘As Soon As This Weekend’: Iran’s Out Of Time”

1. Let’s say Trump attacks (well not him exactly; he’s actually a deeply yellow coward) and he wins. Then what? He’ll just end up with a hot mess in Persia (remember, they still think of themselves as Persians, not “Iranians” and certainly not Arabs, whom they despise) . Nature abhors a vacuum and this could be a very big one that Putin would love to fill up, you know, add Persia’s oil and its customers to his oil and his customers. And then, of course there’s the Straight of Hormuz lurking around. That’s a big hole that will need an even bigger cork. Do we really have the wherewithal to take charge in Iran? I doubt it. How much treasure do we really have lying around for a total takeover? The deficit is already bulging and we’ve got to sell any new T-bonds to someone. And then, the other side of the Straight is our pal(?) Crown Prince MBS. Have we cleared this attack with him? I’m afraid he will insist and we’ve been trading weapons for oil with him for decades. There’s no love lost between SA and Persia but we’re infidels, not friends. No one will come to our aid, not this time. Our Prince of Darkness has alienated the entire world. No soup for him.

2. Indeed , DJT is almost ready to start Operation Epstein Files Diversion.

3. I’m guessing the Ayatollah has one foot out the door and on the plane to flee with his billions$$ and wives to Russia, Turkey, or France perhaps where the original Ayatollah was from. The risk to Chyyna is that Iranian oil supplies stop….and strait of Hormuz stays blocked for a few months maybe ?? Of course, Venezuelan oil can be bought at the market price if paid for in dollars$$. The real risk is if this an opportunity for Russian or Chinese operators to test how effective 15- 20 hypersonic missiles are fired together simultaneously toward Spanish armada, which apparently saved Queen Elizabeth 1.

4. The level of buildup (and Epstein revelations) makes this almost inevitable. There’s 100 air tankers over there right now! The USS Ford is at Gibraltar but still needs to cross the Mediterranean.

5. So scare them into a deal, or “shock and awe” until they come hats in hand to the bargaining table, or Ali Khamenei flees the country? Venezuela notwithstanding, it can’t be that simple, can it?

   1. If Khamenei had any sense about him he’d be in Moscow already. Instead he’s hosting public prayers for Ramadan.

      1. As mentioned here earlier this week, and on numerous occasions last month, the IRGC probably should’ve struck a backdoor deal with Trump to seize power and remove the theocratic layer in favor of a “temporary” arrangement defined by a de facto military junta with parliament nominally free to make day-to-day decisions about domestic policy. The deal could include some sort of framework for addressing the missile program in exchange for Treasury removing the terrorist designation. I don’t think the nuclear inspections are the sticking point. The IRGC has everything to lose and nothing to gain here. An 86-year-old, sickly cleric has them on the brink of a full-on war with the US military which could result in the compete destruction of the bribery, corruption and patronage networks that give the IRGC its privileged position in Iranian society. They need to tell Khamenei and his sons, and the rest of the clerics, that it’s time to leave for Russia.

         1. But can the IRGC do that? Aren’t the Basij and Morality Police tied into Mullahs? No mullahs = no legitimacy or patronage for the low level domestic enforcers.

            I’m an amateur when it comes to Iran, I know the surrounding world much better. So, take those questions with a grain of salt.

         2. That I can buy: it’s essentially “Let’s Make a Deal” with the IRGC, who is expected to sell Ali Khamenei down the line.

         3. That would definitely be the best outcome Mr H. Same template a Venezuela pretty much. We don’t want to destroy their whole country nor micromanage their domestic affairs. Huge benefit to Iranians is being liberated from theocratic medieval religious oppression.

         4. The problem is more than just unwillingness for a deal from the Iranian side. Compare the depth of the negotiating team from the Obama era with what you’ve got now. It’s basically Witkopff and Kushner, and they obviously don’t have the skill to build a golden bridge, even if it’s their intent.
            And it’s not sinking a carrier that’s my concern. As Ted Postol pointed out, refurbished Iranian missile systems have the potential to be twice as accurate as those used in the previous attack on Israeli cities. That’s an exponential increase in potential damage, even if the operators are Keystone and command and control clueless. And even with a carrier group in the Med providing extra missile defence, the Israeli shield is good, but not as good as advertised. My thought is thus not what the US would do to Iran, in case of a counter strike, but how it would stop Israeli nukes if such a counter strike on Tel Aviv is just that little bit more effective than last time.

      2. +1.

   2. According to the WSJ, that’s literally the entire plan.
      https://archive.is/a7fFW

6. I wager that DJT is hoping that this show of force perhaps augmented by some “low risk” air strikes will force the Iranians to the give in or, best of all, trigger a popular uprising against the turbans running the country. (Hopefully his advisors are better informed than those surrounding to poor Bush-II who were unaware that there were two branches of Islam who hated one another in Iraq.)

   As our Dear Leader rightfully reminds us. the overwhelming military advantage over the Iranian airspace there sure as hell looks makes airstrikes easy-peezy. What could go wrong?

   Back in the old days when financial markets were mostly over-the-counter, if you were a trader you had a phone console of direct lines to your brokers and competitors. When you walked into a NY trading room after some any global event like Bhopal or the assignation of Indira Ghandi your brokers were ready to share jokes from London. Such as “Q: what’s the Union Carbide’s company song? A: 10 little Indians.” and such.

   I “share” these fond memories as I think back to the long-forgotten Iran hostage crisis. I once started a rumor on the boards “Did you hear that the Iranians agreed to release half of the hostages? Yes, the lower halves.”

   But the nightmare risk facing the president is a captured US pilot or two. There’s your right tail event.

7. After Alexander the Great defeated Persia, he founded a city and named it after himself. He was also recognized and worshiped as a god.

8. Meanwhile, in Iran . . .

   The Ford carrier group is still some days from reaching its station off Israel. When it arrives, the US military buildup combined with Israel’s airpower will be large, but large enough for what.

   Certainly large enough to destroy Iran’s air defenses, government and military buildings, ballistic missiles not in deep storage, and power stations, oil infrastructure, and nuclear facilities if it comes to that.

   But not large enough to put boots into the country and snatch/kill leadership or control key facilities or locations.

   Unless Iran’s military takes matters into its own hands, I think the regime can hang on, for longer than Trump might like.

   With airpower alone, the US can bomb Iran back to, not the stone age, but to the 1800s let’s say. Will that bring down the regime?

   I’d think that if the US is willing to cut off Iran’s oil exports (to cut off income), and cut off its imports (to cut off weapons from Russia and now more importantly China), then after enough months of the military and everyone else going unpaid and unfed, the country will dissolve into chaos, hunger, violence, and despair. Maybe with some captive US airmen for spice.

   Probably not going to earn Trump his Peace Prize. And maybe not the best Republican lead up to the midterms.