If you were looking for signs of life in the US housing market, you won’t find them in the marquee tally of contract activity.

On the heels of a lackluster showing for the MBA’s purchase gauge on Wednesday, the NAR’s pending home sales index printed another decline on Thursday, disappointing those hoping for a rebound after the prior month’s sharp drop.

Indeed, the index continues to loiter near the lows, underscoring myriad challenges facing buyers, sellers and builders alike.

The figure above’s a reminder: As initially reported, December’s plunge was the largest since 2020, and while that print was revised to show a shallower drop, 7.5% for that month’s still very pronounced, making January’s decline, however slight, all the more discouraging.

Note that economists expected a 2% gain from Thursday’s readout. Silly them.

This is, of course, a leading indicator, which means existing home sales for February are probably tracking quite poorly. “Improving affordability conditions have yet to induce more buying activity,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun sighed, before offering a somewhat daunting assessment of the outlook.

Lower mortgage rates, despite failing to catalyze a real thaw in this thoroughly frozen market, should nevertheless bring more than half a million buyers to the table this year. In the absence of a very large supply response, “these additional potential buyers could simply push up home prices, increasing pressure on affordability,” Yun added.

Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.