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US Inflation Benign With One Glaring Caveat
Friday's inflation report out of the US looked like a non-event at first blush, with one (not insign
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Housing (OER and rent) CPI will be artificially suppressed until, I think, this fall by BLS’ decision to assign zero YOY to the panels that were not surveyed during the shutdown. Since these measures are a rolling sum of six biannual panels, deeming one of six to be zero has a meaningful effect.
PCE uses a lower weight for housing, so the understatement error should be lower.
How will Warsh try to tame the long end? QE? However, he keeps touting QT, which is probably a non-starter for Trump.