Somehow, the US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, a veritable miracle relative both to expectations and last week’s hodgepodge of disconcerting labor market updates from ADP, Revelio and Challenger, all of which pointed to softer (or even negative) hiring.

The headline NFP print doubled up consensus, which officially expected 65,000 from the readout. It’s fair to say many economists unofficially worried the number could come in far lower.

Revisions trimmed November and December hiring by 17,000, leaving the three-month average at 73,000, the highest in 11 months.

The headline beat was especially surprising in the context of remarks from Kevin Hassett who, earlier this week, said markets “shouldn’t panic” if the labor market data reflects “a sequence of numbers that are lower than you’re used to.”

On the contrary, Wednesday’s number was higher than markets are “used to” in Trump’s second coming, and by a pretty wide margin. Hassett said any weakness going forward should be considered a byproduct of — and this is a real quote, unfortunately — “illegals leaving the country.”

“Population growth is going down and productivity growth is skyrocketing,” Hassett went on. “It’s an unusual set of circumstances.” (It is that. I’ll grant Kevin that these “circumstances” of ours are in fact highly “unusual.”)

The breakdown in Wednesday’s release showed hiring was concentrated in health care, social assistance and construction, which between them accounted for 157,000 job additions, which is to say all the jobs, plus some.

Note that private payrolls rose 172,000, according to the BLS. That was more than 100,000 ahead of estimates and nearly eight times higher than ADP’s count.

Federal government payrolls continued to contract and are down almost 11% since October of 2024. Congratulations to Russ Vought. Now if only that federal worker purge led to the promised reduction in government spending, the administration might have a plausible claim on something other than cruelty for the sake of it.

On the household survey side, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. That’s the lowest since August.

The drop in the UNR was amplified by an uptick in the participation rate. That combination isn’t what you’d expect under Hassett’s “unusual circumstances.”

Average hourly earnings came in a touch warm, at 0.4% MoM and 3.7% YoY. That suggests a re-heat from Q4. Recall that Tuesday’s Employment Cost Index update suggested worker comp growth cooled to the slowest in over four years to close out 2025.

As for the final run at the annual benchmark revision, the BLS said total nonfarm employment through March of 2025 was 898,000 lower than initially reported, seasonally adjusted, and 862,000 lower not seasonally adjusted. Those figures are generally consistent with the 911,000 preliminary estimate from September.

The figure above shows you the monthly revisions for all of 2025. They suggest hiring was nearly 70% below the initially reported figures. Specifically, the US economy added a net 181,000 jobs last year versus the previously tipped 584,000.

So, the average monthly job gain on the NFP headline in 2025 was a mere 15,000, down from an initially-reported 50,000.

Overall, Wednesday’s BLS data suggested the US labor market firmed meaningfully in January, at odds with virtually every other indicator. For now, the bureau will get the benefit of the doubt despite pressing questions about the reliability of a process which some worry is overtly (with a “t” in the middle) politicized.

On the revisions, the outsized nature of the adjustments casts considerable doubt on the idea that the first estimates can be relied upon as a reasonably accurate snapshot of hiring across the world’s largest economy.

The BLS on Wednesday added a footnote about the weather. Winter storms “did impact the collection of household survey data,” the bureau said, adding that the response rate was just 64.3%.