Already have an account? log in
This article is FREE for you
Create a free account and join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks
By submitting your email address you agree to receive communication by email
Free Rein
I'm pretty tired by now of hearing about what Donald Trump "can" and "can't" do. Just in general, bu
OR, subscribe now for unlimited access
By submitting your email address you agree to receive communication by email
By submitting your email address you agree to receive communication by email
The idea that the “bond vigilantes” would be a check on the president since, as you rightly point out, the other checks no longer have any ability to do so.
Maybe they are also losing their teeth. I caught the end of the president’s impromptu press conference as he prepared to fly to “the best golf course in the world.” He endorsed a weaker dollar to support his tariffs. The bonds barely moved. Where are the “vigilantes” ??
this “vigilante” will be unloading underweight positions in EDV and TLT, and going forward will keep duration investment to 10 years or less…(not investment advice…)…
I believed strongly that Trump would be a dictator during the election. I was proven right on day one with the initial batch of executive orders. My belief in the beginning was that at least the Supreme Court would still uphold the law. That was clearly a mistake. I see what is happening, I was talking to a conservative about the concentration camp in Florida and I was told that denigrates the memory of world war 2. I said I was using it as a basis for that. Yes there are no ovens that we are aware of. But it is clear to me that they are going to use these prisons as slave labor camps.
So I don’t believe now that we are like a third world nation we are a third world nation.
By oven or alligator, in the end you are dead.
I believed strongly that Trump would be a dictator during the election. I was proven right on day one with the initial batch of executive orders. My belief in the beginning was that at least the Supreme Court would still uphold the law. That was clearly a mistake. I see what is happening, I was talking to a conservative about the concentration camp in Florida and I was told that denigrates the memory of world war 2. I said I was using it as a basis for that. Yes there are no ovens that we are aware of. But it is clear to me that they are going to use these prisons as slave labor camps.
So I don’t believe now that we are like a third world nation we are a third world nation.
The back slap was a blatant illustration of trump the bully’s frustration. Stuff like that’s been happening for hundreds of years in bars, schoolyards, outdoor b-ball courts and much darker places. “You’re gonna get that money tomorrow, right my man?” Followed by a smile and wake-up backslap. Or worse. Much worse. Obviously, trump lived his silver-spoon fed life w/o ever being at risk of having to fight a legit tough guy himself. Too bad. We wouldn’t be where we are now…At this point it’ll be a miracle if he ever gets what he deserves and the country moves away from the autocracy pole.
Would love to see JPow slap The Don with a lawsuit, perhaps an assault charge – for the attempted intimidation and unwelcome physical contact of that slap on the back. Too bad Jay didn’t respond with a equally “friendly” shove, or perhaps a little razz of the perfectly injection molded hairdo…
Skydance is owned by David Ellison, son of Larry Ellison- so, of course, the current administration approved the merger.
“human morality is “a cultural overlay, a thin veneer hiding an otherwise selfish and brutish nature””.
There are a lot of contributing factors- but yes, H, this is where we are.
I am waiting for Trump to pardon Ghislaine.
She’ll name a bunch of Democrats, say Trump never did anything, Trump will pardon her for ‘telling the truth’ and claim ‘this proves the left are evil nasty pedos out to get me’.
I agree. I figured that went without saying.
The last 10 years have disabused me of a lot of illusions I’ve held over the years. The fact that the US government is so easily taken over by a silver spoon billionaire autocrat saying the most outlandish and easily provable lies is by far the scariest.
I think the primary check on what he can “do” is the market, because if it went down 20 percent after he fired Powell or tried to arrest Obama he would almost immediately take it back.
Which is almost the whole problem in a nutshell, the mechanism he respects most is enabling him more than ever. Where are the stock and bond vigilantes? Why won’t Powell pull back on QE, YCC, MBS buys, or other things than “enable” the market?
Both. Jarring, the more we slip into this psychosis. As long as the market is up, people are making money and appear employed, the dealings behind the curtains (and plain sight) get excused. The rhetoric being spewed this morning about yesterday’s tour was unwatchable. Are any politicians at least asking ChatGPT for a plan, or have they not figured out what AI is yet?
In George Martin’s “Game of Thrones,” he has a parable he enjoyed writing so much that it even made it into the television series.
A sellsword (mercenary) is in a room with three men: the king of his homeland, the high priest of his religion, and a merchant baron. The king tells the sellsword, “I order you to kill the other two. As your rightful king, you are honor-bound to obey.” The high priest says, “Kill the other two. They are heretics, and God wills it.” The merchant simply says, “Kill the other two and I will make you richer than your wildest dreams.” So whom does the sellsword obey?
The superficial answer is, “It depends on the sellsword.” Is he primarily motivated by piety, honor, or avarice?
The deeper answer is that whom the sellsword listens to is irrelevant. The real lesson is that in a room with three people at the peak of their respective pyramids of power, the person with real power is the guy with a razor-sharp metal stick and the willingness to use it.
…
If at some point either the legislature or the Supreme Court tells Trump, “Do this,” and Trump says, “No,” you don’t have a check to his power, you have a constitutional crisis. How that crisis resolves depends entirely on the people who wear uniforms and the right to carry and use guns. Who do you think they’ll obey? I suppose it’s debatable, but my money is on Trump.
And before anyone tries to argue that there are too many men and women in uniform who will honor their oath to uphold the constitution, I remind you that Trump’s supporters are motivated by belief. If he tells them, “The constitution says I can do this,” they will believe his interpretation over anyone else’s.
Completely agree with you. Another refutation to the “too many men and women in uniform who will honor their oath…” argument, how many does he need to not do that?
The police and military services have been breeding grounds for far right recruiters for decades. I have experienced this personally, being casually sold on the theory of white supremacy while in a military barracks. It’s alluring to hear your comrade spin these webs but also horrifying once you realize what it is exactly they are trying to convince you to believe in.
I’m going to venture a guess that he would have no problem assembling a confederacy percent of the military if he really wanted to go that route.
One little mutiny can change everything. Ask Russia about that.
Last fall I spoke to thousands of registered voters in working class neighborhoods of Philadelphia and only one expressed concern that democracy was under threat. Several, however, expressed that they wanted President Trump to do whatever it would take to deport all the undocumented, or stop trans women from competing in women’s sports, or just put an end to woke policies (whatever that means).
As the election drew nearer and my lists were culled down to people who had not already voted, or committed to another volunteer who knocked on their door to vote, or self-identified to another volunteer as a Trump supporter, I began dealing with almost exclusively apathetic people.
The experience added nuance to my perception of what the voting population was like. Yes, a lot of people who ostensibly care about this country remaining a democracy were in denial, but there was a pretty significant percentage of people who just don’t care at all, and there was a vocal minority who had no problem with authoritarian policies. There was a lot of delusional thinking, that’s for sure. People who thought he’d only deport violent criminals, and people who thought he’d only cut health care for people who shouldn’t be here were frequently expressed opinions.
At the end of the day, my overall impression was that roughly a third of the people I spoke with just didn’t care, and of the rest, most had a simulacrum of democracy in their mind’s eye they were taking both for granted and for reality. It seemed to me that human beings just don’t do anything until the sky falls in, and that in this case, there may be little they can do when it does, because all the pieces are now in place.
Thank you for this, Ezra. Too bad that the Democrats tried to run on an issue that few voters care about. But it was a little better than running on transgender access to the bathroom of their choice as they focused on in 2016. Most voters don’t care about either. Righteous losers.
Excellent comments all, but especially this one. I can’t hit that far so will just offer that I’ve seen a lot of mob movies, and that little reassuring back slap seems as characteristic as adding a ‘y’ to everyone’s first name.
The system hasn’t failed, there are too many eunuchs, yesmen and women, and sycophants in congress.
“Every system is perfectly designed to get the result that it does.”
My favorite quote ever. So much so I it framed and hung on a wall in my office. Deming FTW
See Michael Cohen. Trump avoids accountability by finding others do to his dirty work for him and then leaving no auditable trail back to himself. The signed checks Cohen produced in defense of his actions did no harm to the man who signed them. Who went to jail and who is president?
At this point almost zero chance that I visit the US.
One of the tenets in the field of Change Management is that people really don’t change their behavior (rebel against Trump) until they have to because of the so-called psychological work that would entail – in other words, people resist change. Two thoughts: One, as is the case with alcoholism, one has to “touch bottom”; things get so bad, one has to change and there is only one way out, i.e. set the oil rig on fire to get the crew to jump into the sea. Two, to avoid pushback from people confronted with the need to change, the best strategy is to remove their need to resist – take away what’s stand in the way of letting go, i.e., pride, ego, tribal affiliation. In other words, America needs a well funded, rescue plan just like what most companies would do when they approach workplace change
‘A democracy if you can keep it’. It was only a matter of time before the US got to the tipping point. If it survives we have to have some modern version of ‘united we stand, divided we fall’. I’m afraid the counter revolution will work only if key institutions (major law firms, universities and key business segments) stand up together. So far they haven’t. When it was money or values they chose money. Seems we’re past the point where voters can do it alone. America’s greed and hubris are it’s downfall and Trump is the poster child for both.
Citizens United.