More or less everyone’s lost their minds in America. I get that.
And most people are cowardly or anyway (and understandably) more concerned with safeguarding their own interests and those of the people they care about than standing up for nebulous “principles” which, let’s face it, aren’t worth a damn thing in the final analysis.
There’s no afterlife, which means you’re not currying favor with any divine judge(s) by standing up for what’s “right” while you’re among the living. As such, there’s a very strong argument for the idea that putting principle over your own well-being is plain old dumb.
The ratio of people who successfully stared down tyranny to nameless nobodies who were shot through the eyes trying, is hopelessly skewed towards dead nobodies. As a general rule, when faced with tyranny, burgeoning or (especially) entrenched, average people should try their best to blend in and make the most of it. Life’s too short to brave the long odds of being a hero.
But — BUT. Donald Trump’s not a tyrant yet. He’s getting there, but lest we should forget (Too late! I know.) the system’s set up for him to fail. There’s no American precedent for what he’s trying to do, and setting aside the fact that the Founders were hypocrites who by and large never intended to establish anything that even remotely approximates strict egalitarianism and pure democracy, the whole point of their nation-building project was to throw off the yoke of monarchy.
I know I’m (mostly) preaching to the choir, but allow me to emphasize: We’re letting this happen. It’s not so much an usurpation as it is Americans — from voters to elected officials to Supreme Court justices — willingly ceding everything granted to them by the Constitution to Trump. For every inch he takes by some manner of force, we give him a mile. And we’ve been doing it for nearly a decade. The result is what we have now: A transitional autocracy. An embryonic illiberal democracy.
Political scientists aren’t good for much, and I say that as a political scientist myself. But they (we) were right on this. We warned and warned beginning in ~2017 that America was “sleepwalking” into authoritarianism. How many times did you hear that description during Trump’s first term? The “sleepwalking” bit? Over and over and over again.
Hell, even Liz Cheney employed that language at one juncture, telling CBS in December of 2023 that America was “sort of a sleepwalking into dictatorship.” Fast forward 19 months and that same CBS canceled Stephen Colbert “days after he spoke out against the network’s owner for settling a lawsuit [with Trump] it probably would have won,” as Molly Jong-Fast put it in an opinion piece for The New York Times this week, adding that the Colbert news constitutes “yet another dark moment for an American media company seemingly bowing and scraping to Trump, obeying in advance, hoping to make a deal.” (CBS denies that characterization.)
The CBS decision was, in my opinion (which I think I’m still entitled to), another example of what’s known as “anticipatory obedience.” We’ve seen it from Meta (or at least from Mark Zuckerberg, whose personal metamorphosis from Screech Powers to the physical embodiment of the term “overcompensating” is a microcosm) and we’ve seen it from Jeff Bezos in the Washington Post‘s decision to nix a Kamala Harris endorsement.
On Tuesday, Mohamed El-Erian suggested the Fed itself should engage in its own act of anticipatory obedience. “If Chair Powell’s objective is to safeguard the Fed’s operational autonomy (which I deem vital), then he should resign,” El-Erian said on social media, suggesting the best way to combat Trump’s ongoing efforts to commandeer US monetary policy is for Powell to abdicate.
“I recognize this isn’t the consensus view… [n]or is it a first best, yet it’s better than what is playing out now,” El-Erian went on, adding that “threats to Fed independence will undoubtedly increase should he remain in office.”
So, according to El-Erian, the best way for the Fed to protect its independence is to tacitly cede it, because to do otherwise is to chance a scenario where it’s challenged overtly.
Do note: That’s precisely the strategy the Supreme Court employed earlier this year when the Justices, concerned Trump might openly defy them (in the process exposing the Court as powerless in a push-comes-to-shove confrontation), instead ruled in his favor. Or at least refrained from ruling against him.
Needless to say, this idea of El-Erian’s isn’t a good one, and the logic doesn’t make any sense. Yes, Trump would probably stop assailing the Fed on a daily basis if he succeeds in replacing the Chair with a candidate who passes The White House fealty test, but to call any abatement of public Fed criticism in such a scenario evidence that the institution’s independence is preserved is to miss the point entirely.
Imagine you’re an activist investor. After a decade-long pressure campaign, you finally succeed in overthrowing your target company’s board and installing your own slate of directors. At that point, you cease assailing the board because… well, because your friends now control it. Would it be accurate, in that scenario, to say the company’s board is no longer under pressure from you?
If Powell steps down and Trump manages to get the Senate to install, say, Kevin Hassett in his place, Trump might cease berating the Fed for a while, but that relative silence wouldn’t represent the restoration of Fed independence, it’d represent the end of it.
One person who understands that is Larry Summers. “The idea that allowing himself to be forced out would somehow [represent] Jay Powell serving the interests of [Fed] independence is, I think, very wrong,” Summers said Tuesday. “If the Fed Chair became a rubber stamp subject to presidential diktat, I think we would have lost the independence of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy.”
Again, we should all take a step back and remember that we’re letting this happen. We can still stop it. But every inch we give is another mile Trump takes down the road to a place from which nations typically take a very long time to return. If they return at all.
Bizzaro SuperClown seems intent on running the country into the ground, just like his companies. Logic likewise seems to have become twisted inside out.
I have often believed that the Fed was late to the game. But the idea that you can have perfect economic foresight is only held in centrally managed communist countries with predictable result. The best to be hoped for is not to be wrong footed.
I am more alarmed by our complacent electorate. In round numbers half of eligible voters did not vote in 2024. WTF! Thus only 1/4 of eligible voters backed the Clown. And that was against an opponent who was pulled out of the hat at the last moment. Maybe we should pass a law that removes citizenship if you don’t vote. Although then you might have to add a box for “none of the above idiots”. Of course None would win. I give up. Just venting.
Agree 100%. El-Erian is either working for trump, or he lost his mind. He expressed an indefensible, destructive position.
Honestly I just don’t think he thought it through before he posted it. And then once he did it was too late.
You may be right. He’s not stupid. Good reminder to get someone else to look over very controversial, public advice before hitting “send.”.
Unfortunately, it may take a dire economic event or circumstance to turn this ship. There’s a confluence of bullshit coming, seeing how anything you see can be discredited as AI generated. Empty shelves and dire straights may be tonic to self governance. Being a bit old for protests, I send money to PACs and NGOs. During Trump 1 every time there was a protest, I sent cash to a political cause I care about. This time around we give every month.
Old, or in a wheelchair, it doesn’t matter. Join a protest, take the time to visit with some new likeminded friends. It’s worth the effort.
Today, Trump said that he “could let” Jerome Powell serve out his term as Federal Reserve chair. How magnanimous of him.
Not sure I would directly blame the electorate anymore – this is becoming a market problem too – the more the market goes up the more emboldened he is to do stupid stuff.
Rather than resign, Powell should actively go against the market (along with the board governors) and just force the confrontation already. Don’t cut rates. Announce you are stopping all MBS purchases. No more QE at all. If the market is his scoreboard, change the score.
Trump shies away from fighting stronger adversaries, keeps pushing weaker ones until they cave in and other weak ones follow. If one or two Republican senate leaders suddenly stood up and said ” ENOUGH”!
we might stop this mindless runaway train. Can that happen ? Yes. Will it ? No.
Or just say “we arent raising rates until CPI hits 2 percent and no more QE ever” and see how the market reacts…. Force Trump to fire him.
meant *cut
Jeez — I can’t think of any worse advice except maybe for Powell to resign AND immediately come out with a book (and tour) on how the loss of Fed independence will mark the official start of the fall of America. I even have a suggested working title: “FOMC to F-OMG.”
El erian has made boneheaded comments before. Not that surprised he made another. Powell has no need to bow to Trump. Trump is worried about skeletons in the Jeffery Epstein closet. And he is obviously physically and mentally impaired. I give Jay Powell a lot of credit. Trump is more likely to have to exit early than Powell.
I don’t live in your shoes, but as a Canadian reader, I could not agree more with the notion that you are . . . letting it happen. Please do not give an inch, fight it tooth and nail all the way. The rest of the western world is watching in disbelief. Trump is the not the problem – apathy is.
H-Man, this whole environment seems to have a smell of McCarthyism to it. Disagree and ye shall be punished. At some point, the proverbial line in the sand will be drawn. TACO’s anyone?
Do you think Trump will “run” for a third term?
“We can still stop it.”
Is this confidence or hope?
As you stated above, the people who oppose tyrrany usually end up dead. With our militarized police force gradually amping up the violence I would say we are days or weeks away from head bashing becoming shooting.
How do you suppose we, at this point, with a compliant Supreme Court, an absent Congress, and an Executive controlled state; stop it?
Because I’m not seeing an option.
Get out in the street and protest. Speak to your elected officials and others. Join/work for a Democratic campaign. Vote. Talk to your neighbors. Write letters to the Editor. Be creative
I believe it’s step 11 in the Road to Serfdom