It’s a pretty busy week in the US, where traders will parse key inflation updates, a retail sales report and big bank earnings, all against a backdrop of fraught trade negotiations and questions about Jerome Powell’s future.

The marquee macro event is obviously CPI, on Tuesday. Economists reckon core price growth across the world’s largest economy ran 0.3% MoM in June. If that’s accurate, it’d be the briskest monthly rate since January.

Tariff inflation, professional forecasters argue, is destined to show up eventually. After all, someone has to pay Donald Trump, and it ain’t gonna be exporters abroad. That leaves importers in America and unless you think they’re just going to eat the cost, the trade levies will eventually manifest as price hikes to consumers once stockpiled inventory runs out.

Or at least that’s the consensus narrative. But I’d remind readers that economists said more or less the same thing about May’s CPI readout. Core inflation was likewise expected to accelerate to 0.3% on tariff-related price pressures, but it didn’t. Instead, underlying inflation printed just 0.13%.

Economists see the annual rate of core price growth rising to 2.9% for June, up from May and the first increase in the YoY pace since January. Again: They said the same thing ahead of May’s readout.

If we’re honest, economists have been forecasting a tariff-related inflation bump for three months now in one form or another. I think they’ll be right eventually, but let’s face it: Economists can be a contrarian indicator. And every time they’re wrong about Trump, he uses it as a propaganda.

If you’re a business and you’re grappling with higher input costs, the decision to pass those costs along to customers depends in part on whether you believe they’re likely to pay up. That decision was easy during the “greedflation” years, when consumers were flush with stimulus money, the unemployment rate was on its way down to a record low and both fiscal and monetary policy were expansionary. Things are less clear-cut today, with jobs growth decelerating, Fed funds still north of 4% and fiscal policy operating on the supply-side instead of the demand-side.

On Thursday, investors will get a fresh read on the American consumer. The retail sales report is expected to show nominal spending on goods and restaurant checks rose slightly in June after consecutive declines in April and May.

The important nuance is that the control group, which economists use to refine GDP forecasts, was solid in May. That’s what counts, not the headline.

Also on deck in the US: PPI (Wednesday), the preliminary read on University of Michigan sentiment (Friday) and housing updates, including builder sentiment for July (Thursday) and the new construction tally for June (Friday).

Traders will hear from a bevy of Fed speakers, including Barkin, Barr, Bowman, Collins, Cook, Daly, Hammack, Kugler, Logan and Waller. If you have any respect left for Waller, I don’t know why. He’s morphed into a sycophant determined to publicly ingratiate himself to Trump. Bowman’s more subtle than that, but it’s pretty clear where her loyalties lie, and in my opinion, they aren’t with the Fed. Not if the choice is between Powell and Trump. I hope I’m wrong about that. As for the rest of the Fed, it’s time to speak up for institutional independence. (Spoiler alert: They won’t.)

Elsewhere, Beijing will release a raft of key data including trade figures for June (macro watchers will obviously be keen for any evidence that the tariffs are further undermining China’s exports) as well as retail sales and housing numbers covering last month. The NBS will also give us the GDP tally for Q2, which’ll be somewhere north of 5%.