Already have an account? log in
This article is FREE for you
Create a free account and join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks
By submitting your email address you agree to receive communication by email
Where’s The Tariff Inflation?
It's a pretty busy week in the US, where traders will parse key inflation updates, a retail sales re
OR, subscribe now for unlimited access
By submitting your email address you agree to receive communication by email
By submitting your email address you agree to receive communication by email
Late last week, Stephen Miran was a guest on CNBC stridently arguing that because tariffs had not shown up in inflation as of yet, it was foolish to assume that it ever will. Joe Kernan lobbed in some lollipop questions but left it up to Melissa Lee to ask how he could guarantee that happy outcome. I had wished that she had asked the esteemed economist whether he was basing his assertion on two months of data when before tariffs has truly kicked in, but she did skewer his conviction. She asked directly if he was confident in his promise that it never would.
He replied that barring a real outlier such as a meteor striking the earth or another pandemic, he was certain of it. He snarkily mentioned the meteor has the only threat in reply to a follow-up question.
So, if tariff-driven inflation has not yet reared its head, it never will?
Anyone who invests based on the CNBC “brains trust” deserves the result they get. Investing is not a game. If one treats it like gambling on Melissa Lee or Joe Kernan (former vacuum cleaner salesman?) one will always lose. The index will be better. The trouble is the index never tells its inflection points. And we already know that no point forecast of anything in a continuous distribution can ever be accurate except by a nano-second accident. I know you know this because I read all your excellent comments. I stopped listening to these guys when all the smart people left. Liesman is a nice guy and can think a little but he’s an economist not an investor.
Show up in inflation and/or in margins, and the margin impact will be partly in public companies and partly in private. I assume the esteemed CNBCers didn’t delve into that.
My gripe here is not with CNBC. It’s with the fact that the Chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers is peddling that crap.