Donald Trump’s not going to fire Jerome Powell.

That’s according to, uh, Donald Trump. “No,” he said, when asked about Powell’s ouster late last week. He then commenced the usual complain-a-thon. “I think he’s doing a terrible job,” Trump said. “We should be 3 points lower, interest rates. He’s costing our country a lot of money.”

It’s amusing that Trump’s estimate of where Fed funds should be continues to fall the more he talks about it. Several weeks ago (call it two months), he said the Fed should cut by 150bps. Then it was 200bps. Now it’s 300bps. I suppose we should just be grateful he’s not calling for negative rates as he did ahead of the 2019 FOMC meeting.

I do agree with Trump that the Fed should cut. They’re probably 50bps above neutral, and it’s not obvious why that should be the case anymore. I don’t buy the notion that America’s somehow inoculated against tariff-related price pressures by a Fed funds rate that’s half a point higher than it might be in the absence of the trade war.

That said, “we” shouldn’t be 300bps lower. That’s silly. That’d put the funds rate ~200bps into stimulative territory when core inflation’s still running a full point faster than target and evidence to support sundry recession narratives is still lacking. It’s remarks like that one — i.e., “We should be 3 points lower” — which make plain why it’s dangerous to let populist politicians dictate the price of money.

Whether or not Trump actually fires Powell, he certainly wants to. And I suspect saying “No” when asked about the possibility is just Trump giving the only answer possible without triggering fireworks in the bond market and a steep selloff on Wall Street.

If you ask me, it’s unlikely Powell makes it in the role until May, when his term ends. Russ Vought’s fabricating a ridiculous excuse to remove him for “cause,” and on Sunday, both Kevins piled on. Hassett said Powell has “a lot to answer for” in connection with interior decorating decisions at the the Marriner Eccles building while Warsh, appearing on Fox for the second time in four days, called the cost of the building’s renovations “outrageous” before reiterating the Fed needs “regime change.”

For reference, here’s the exchange between Hassett and ABC’s Jonathan Karl:

KARL: Before you go, I want to ask you about Jerome Powell, the Fed chair. The administration’s been highly critical of the way the Fed has handled renovations to its building; to its headquarters here in Washington. $2.5 billion renovation sounds like a lot to me, I have to admit.

HASSETT: Yeah.

KARL: But let me ask you, could this be used as a predicate to fire the Fed chair?

HASSETT: I think that whether the president decides to push down that road or not is going to depend a lot on the answers that we get to the questions that Russ Vought sent to the Fed. The bottom line is that this is the most expensive project in D.C. history, $2.5 billion with a $700 billion cost overrun. To put that in perspective, the cost overrun for this Federal Reserve project is about the same size as the second biggest building overhaul in American history, which was the FBI building. And so, the Fed has a lot to answer for.

And the bottom line is — the bottom line is that there’s a key statutory problem. In 1913, when we founded the Fed, the US was under a gold standard. So, it was never envisioned by the people that voted for the construction of the Fed that we currently see, that the Fed could print money and toss it around willy-nilly because they had to have the gold to do what they’re doing. And they’re unbounded right now.

KARL: Literally — right, literally print the money to do the renovation. Very quickly, yes or no answer, does the president, in your view, have the authority to fire the Fed chair?

HASSETT: That’s a thing that’s being looked into. But certainly, if there’s cause, he does.

Not a lot surprises me in any context, let alone in the context of Trumplandia. But I gotta say: I’m astounded by the audacity on display here. This is transparently farcical. Trump, Vought, Hassett and Warsh are ginning up an excuse to remove a Fed Chair by suggesting that cost overruns for building renovations constitute an impeachable conspiracy.

We’ve had seven years of Powell speaking to us publicly on a regular basis. Does he strike you as the kind of person who’d wittingly rob the public coffers because he wants an extravagant “water feature” installed in the building where his office happens to be? Or the sort of guy who’d wittingly fleece taxpayers because he’s dissatisfied with the plans for a rooftop garden?

Maybe the renovations are “ostentatious,” maybe they aren’t, but the idea that Powell’s engaged in a coverup — that he’s so determined to turn the Marriner Eccles building into the grandest palace mankind’s ever known that he’d risk his reputation and career if it means getting “premium marble,” to quote Vought — is nothing short of lunacy.

The sheer scope and brazenness of the dishonesty on display here from Trump, Vought, Hassett and Warsh is hard to fathom, particularly in Warsh’s case. But I suppose we can take some solace in knowing that if he gets the Fed job (and I think he’s probably the frontrunner), this — or something like it — will almost surely happen to him eventually.

I don’t know why anyone thinks they’re the exception to the rule when it comes to Trump. If you enter his orbit, you’re forever obligated to do exactly what he says, when he says to do it. If you don’t, watch out.

So, to Kevin Warsh: Good luck my friend. Because if you were in Powell’s seat right now, you’d be cutting by at least 100bps later this month, if not more. Or you’d be getting a letter from Vought accusing you of lying to Congress about the “outrageous” amount of money you spent to restock the Eccles building bathrooms last month.

Tell me, Chair Warsh, did you really need Charmin? Because millions of people across this great nation of ours make do with Angel Soft every, single day.