We’re now one week into the Israel-Iran war.

I’m no expert on Israeli political polling, but it was notable that Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party gained ground in the first poll conducted since the start of the war last Friday.

Although the survey indicated Netanyahu’s coalition would be well short of a Knesset majority, three quarters of the Israeli voting public support the war with Iran. Just 17% oppose it, and two-thirds are convinced Netanyahu’s main goal is the destruction of Khamenei’s nuclear program, not staying in power.

Two things can be true at once, and they are here. There’s no doubt that Netanyahu wants to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat, such as it is. But, it’s also true that Netanyahu sees war as a means of delaying his own political reckoning.

Assuming there is indeed widespread public support for the war in Israel, Tehran has itself to blame. This is a direct consequence of the regime’s incurable penchant for apocalyptic bombast, which in turn is a function of the autocratic tendency to deflect blame for shortcomings by reference to allegedly existential threats, both internal and external.

Autocracies generally need a bête noire — someone, some state or some entity to hold up as an omnipresent menace. For Vladimir Putin, it’s NATO. For Kim Jong-Un, it’s the US. For Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it’s either the Kurds or a collection of elaborate, overlapping conspiracies. For Viktor Orban, it’s George Soros. For Khamenei, it’s two “Satans,” one “giant” (in the US) and one “little” (in Israel).

Autocratic regimes present themselves domestically as the only bulwark between the threat (whatever it is) and the people. In most cases, their rhetoric’s intended not for external audiences, but rather for regime maintenance purposes at home. It’s actually quite rare that a regime takes its own self-serving narrative so seriously as to use it as a justification for war, as Putin did in Ukraine.

As discussed at some length in “The End Of Khamenei?” I doubt seriously that Iran ever intended to attack Israel, and I think it’s entirely fair to suggest a nuclear-armed Iran might’ve actually been less aggressive, confident enough in its own security to dial down the bluster. The problem, though, is that in Israel, Khamenei has a bête noire that’s instinctually allergic to apocalyptic saber-rattling. Having been subjected to modern history’s worst genocide, the Jewish people feel obligated to take pogrom threats literally. You can’t use words like “eradicate” to discuss the Jewish state. When you do, they don’t see you anymore, they see Hitler, Göring and Goebbels.

Every day for decades, Israelis have had to listen to Iran and Hezbollah carry on ceaselessly about wiping the state of Israel off the map. The threat’s not any more serious than Kim’s threats to blow up Seoul, but when everything you say ends up relating back to the destruction of a people who were marched at gunpoint to the gas chambers less than 100 years ago, and those people now possess the military capabilities of a superpower, you’re sowing the seeds for your own demise.

Difficult as this is, the conflict with Iran and Hezbollah really needs to be analyzed separately from the war in Gaza and from Israel’s ongoing annexation of the West Bank. Personally, I think the IDF’s conduct in Gaza constitutes a war crime of historically tragic proportions and the maintenance of a cruel apartheid regime in the West Bank is deplorable not to mention illegal.

That said — and with apologies to the Iranian people and all the innocents killed in Lebanon late last year — the regime in Tehran had it coming, and so did Hassan Nasrallah. What’s happened to Iran over the past week, and what happened in September to Hezbollah, was a very long time in the making. Frankly, it’s astounding Israel waited as long as they did.

But the wait’s over now, and on Friday, Israel Katz made it even clearer than he did Thursday that the goal is in fact toppling Khamenei. The IDF, Katz said, at a security briefing, should precipitate a “mass evacuation from Tehran in order to destabilize the regime.” That, less than 24 hours after he said Khamenei “cannot continue to exist.”

Katz went on to say the IDF will “continue to target facilities and scientists to thwart Iran’s nuclear program,” and the military did just that when an Israeli drone struck an apartment building in Tehran, killing a weapons scientist. He’d been moved from his home and stashed in the apartment in an ultimately futile attempt to prevent his assassination. Israel’s now killed 10 top Iranian scientists in seven days.

In addition, dozens of Israeli warplanes destroyed missile manufacturing sites and hit the headquarters of the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research. That’s notable. The SPND was the brainchild of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who Mossad famously killed in a wild roadside assassination late in 2020. Also destroyed on Friday: Three-dozen missile-storage sites and what the IDF described as “launch infrastructure” in Western Iran. For its part, the regime fired more missiles towards Israel.

If you’re wondering what everyday Iranians think about all this, it’s hard to know. No one appreciates being bombed regardless of how badly you might despise your country’s political leaders, and a large subsection of the Iranian populace still supports the regime. If you include people who support it out of fear, that subset’s even larger.

Following Friday prayers, Iranians gathered in the streets of the capital Katz is trying to empty out and burned flags. Not Iranian flags. They waved those. Hezbollah flags too. The burning banners were those of Israel and the US.

In remarks carried by Iranian state television, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said the regime “does not want to negotiate with anyone” until Israel stops bombing. “The Americans want to negotiate, but we have clearly said there is no room for talking until this aggression stops.” The US, he went on, is “a partner in this crime.”

Meanwhile, on TruthSocial, Donald Trump posted a quote from Marc Thiessen, a conservative commentator and speechwriter. In an interview with Fox’s Bret Baier, Thiessen said Trump’s “not an isolationist.” “This is the guy who killed Qassem Soleimani,” he exclaimed. “You think he’s afraid to take out Forgo? Of course not.” And yes, that’s verbatim from Trump’s post. In trying to transcribe Thiessen’s Fox cameo, he spelled Fordo wrong.