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Slow Bleed
If it feels to you like equities are stuck in the mud after weeks of fireworks, and that risk sentim
Specialization and comparative advantage are pure Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations published in 1776. Trump’s tariff regime is indeed counter-intuitive. It also contradicts the professed beliefs of these so-called free market advocates. I have long thought that the word “conservative” has been reduced to a tribal identity and lost its meaning as a philosophical framework. This whole mess is just another of many others who are Republicans but not republican.
It’s actually more david Ricardo, but your overall point is correct anyway…
Trump clearly trying to return to the golden age of pre-1776 when Wealth of Nations hadn’t been published, we still had a king, and you could tar and feather a man without due process.
“Folks, this is basic stuff.”
I couldn’t have said it better myself.
The only play I can come up with right now is atomic element 79 (Au) until this tariff nonsense calms down and capital stops leaving the USA. I sure hope earnings hold up over the next few quarters, but that seems like a long shot today. We may be burning our Adam Smith books in the town square as this progresses…
I mentioned in a comment to an article on tariffs here a couple of weeks ago that it was if Trump and his economic team had never read the basic works of David Ricardo.
Also, I watched Bessent’s interview with Bloomberg, and as he is agreeing that the Treasury Department has tools to intervene with in the bond market, he is actually shaking his head from side-to-side as if to say “no, I don’t think that will become necessary.” That seems to be what he was trying to communicate, but it also struck me that it could be a huge “tell” that he simply has no intention of doing so even if things were to get worse. (You can see it at about the 15:00 minute mark during the interview.) It is likely I am reading too much into it.
I’m pretty sure neither Trump nor any member of the “team” has ever actually read any book by anyone, let alone Ricardo. Although drt purports to have a degree from Penn, it isn’t a business degree. Anyway, papa supplied surrogates to sit in on sonny Don’s classes in his place so he could do other important stuff like golden showers.
GEE, I wonder if dt will say something this long weekend, now that market is closed, that will help market go up Monday?
Alternatively, maybe something takes it the opposite direction. See section 6 subpara b if this, published on 20 January 2025: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declaring-a-national-emergency-at-the-southern-border-of-the-united-states/
“(b) Within 90 days of the date of this proclamation, the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of Homeland Security shall submit a joint report to the President about the conditions at the southern border of the United States and any recommendations regarding additional actions that may be necessary to obtain complete operational control of the southern border, including whether to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807.”
That 90 days ends this Sunday.
A little bonus pre-holiday market color: https://heisenbergreport.com/2025/04/17/why-good-news-may-not-be-enough-to-make-stocks-rally-again/
You could make the case for a contrarian buy, but you won’t just lose a finger or two here if wrong…you’ll wind up line the black knight in Monty Python. Elements starting with “A” may hold up, but door stops and folks who dig for them are not signs we are moving forward in a positive manner as a species…
Next Fall on Fox, “Miner wants a Marriage!”
All the trashy TV is on Netflix these days, but based on their earnings, they have certainly optimized for eyeballs.
Maybe trump will say “ok, I was kidding…………or , was I ?” The amen corner will still praise him.
For the President, the challenge of China (the US needing to be self sufficient for the upcoming war), and gleaning revenue to pay down the debt, and to carry out tax cuts for the rich, etc., trumps any benefits from competitive advantage.
Thinking about Mega reports to come.
Obvious reasons to expect weaker or uncertain guides, or guides that don’t answer investors’ concerns, from at least META, AAPL, NVDA, TSLA.
Thinking about Mega reports to come.
Obvious reasons to expect weaker or uncertain guides, or guides that don’t answer investors’ concerns, from at least META, AAPL, NVDA, TSLA.
I know it’s all about T & his Ts but perhaps a septet of Mega whiffs will matter too.
Oops