Not surprisingly, the marquee gauge of consumer sentiment in the US printed what may as well be a record low in the preliminary read for April, released on Friday. The details argued for an interpretation which says consumers in America have never felt worse about the country’s economic trajectory.
Donald Trump has succeeded in driving the overall household mood in America, as measured by the University of Michigan’s survey, to levels last seen when headline inflation was flirting with double-digits, no small feat.
The headline print — and to reiterate, this is the preliminary reading for April, so it could always be revised higher, but then again, it could be adjusted lower too — on the index was a truly abysmal 50.8, just barely above the all-time low observed in June of 2022. Consensus wanted 53.8, which would’ve been bad enough on its own.
As the figure shows, we’re in free fall. The index is down four months in a row, and the declines in February, March and April, were 9%, 12% and 11%, respectively. This is a veritable crash.
The expectations gauge printed 47.2 in the first read for this month. That’s down more than 37% from this time last year and the lowest since — drumroll — 1980. Read that again. Consumers haven’t been this pessimistic on the outlook for the US economy since 1980. Add as many exclamation points to that as you see fit.
The share of respondents expecting higher unemployment over the next year rose a fifth month to 67%. That, survey director Joanne Hsu gently pointed out, is “more than double the November 2024 reading.” So, household unemployment expectations have doubled since the election, and although I realize November seems like a lifetime ago, it’s just been a few months.
At nearly seven in 10, the share of Americans expecting the labor market to worsen is the highest since the financial crisis.
Hsu was adamant: Declines in consumer sentiment this month were “pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation.” So, while there’s always nuance, there’s no ambiguity. Not here. Not now. Americans are broadly disenchanted with a situation that many believe is spiraling out of control, and on multiple fronts.
The inflation expectations readouts in Friday’s release were just terrible. The five- to 10-year measure, which had already notched back-to-back three-decade highs, rose even further to 4.4%. I’m not sure how best to communicate the peril inherent in a longer run expectations print that high on this index other than to say it shouldn’t be possible in the Great Moderation / globalization era. That observation’s telling: Trump’s consciously taking us out of the globalization era, and this is the result.
Consider that even in 2022, a macro environment defined by two negative supply shocks — COVID and the war — set against the remnants of a positive demand shock — in massive DM fiscal stimulus — five- to 10-year Michigan inflation expectations stayed more or less rangebound. In the presence of the Trump trade shock, that metric has gone skyward — as in, it’s inflecting on a 90-degree angle.
Speaking of 90-degree angles, the year-ahead measure jumped this month to 6.7%. That’s up 1.7ppt in a month, more than double where it was before Trump took office in January and the highest since Leonid Brezhnev was a household name in the US.
Folks, forgive me for the profanity — which I realize has increased in frequency of late — but what the f-ck is going on? I’ve lived through several panics, and although this episode doesn’t feel as acute on some vectors as autumn of 2008, some of these readouts are wholly anomalous, which is to say unlike anything I’ve seen in my life.
Bottom line: This is a full-on crisis, and I don’t see a circuit breaker. The Fed can’t save America from itself if we’re determined to vote for the destruction of a global trade system we built specifically to suit our needs. And there’s no vaccine against stupidity. Even if there was, RFK Jr. would probably ban it.
Will the myth that Republicans are better for the economy ever die? Will this stupidity finally be enough? At this point, I’m not even sure an actual depression would dissuade the MAGA rank and file from leaving the economic suicide cult.
same myth re: national security…
It’s going to get worse when sentiment gets reflected in hard numbers. We will get an inflationary pop, the Fed will be afraid to ease, and then we will be in a disinflationary environment as businesses and consumers cut back.
Yet the market’s up. MTG must be buying.
Fink was right. We’re in a recession right now. It just hasn’t shown up in the hard data. When the NBER gets around to making it official, they’ll date it to April 2.
How far back does Consumer Sentiment data go?
For the first time in my life, I am engaging with idiots in discussions. I use to firmly believe that it was not worth the effort. It ended when they refused to answer my questions. Unfortunately, it felt pretty good.
yep, we’re all greater than before … greater at despair. Investors, welcome to the inverse universe: rather than buy dips, sell the pops.
This idea that China will cave to Trump’s ludicrous demands, in order to retain the ability to export to the US, is ridiculous. The US is only 14.7% of China’s $3.6T annual exports.
It will be so easy to circumvent any tariffs on China. Similar to oil, stuff coming from China can be shipped to an intermediary or even produced and/or assembled somewhere else and then shipped to the US. Easy peasy.
I’m afraid the University of Michigan’s fixin’ to get its funding cut, probably “in about two weeks,” when the final read is due. Unless, that it, the whole shebang is dismissed as Fake News calculated in part by foreign students who may soon find their visas revoked.
Absolutely agreed. This is only going to get worse given that Congress and the Supreme Court are fine with a moron having full autocratic control of the country.
Do you have a swear jar, Mr. H? Trump’s term may well earn you several of those fancy denim jackets!
Is it time to talk personal contingency plans. Yet?
Functionally all of my assets (99.95% to be precise) are locked up in the dollar economy, much of it completely illiquid – hooray homeowners subsidies – and liquidating the remainder would entail a significant haircut.
I have a EUR-denominated checking account that I use for travel to the EU, where I have permanent residency privileges and no great desire to use them. There’s enough in that account for fleabag lodging and street food for a month. I have no transport to Europe secured, but if the need arose, providing that air travel were still permitted, my husband and I could flee to safety if our lives were in immedite danger. (I’m queer, so this isn’t entirely a hypothetical; nor is it likely considering my appearance – but it’s on my mind since November.)
I’ve diversified into US-based ex-US ETFs to a degree, and for that I am immensely thankful in this market. It’s a drop in the bucket, however, as a share of my total assets.
If US imposed capital controls, selling my house or my investment property would be off the table. I accept that risk. Still, I would be willing to commit 5-10% of my securities portfolio to an ex-US hedge of some sort. To me, the value here lies in holding assets out of reach from US financial regulators who would be the enemy in this scenario. Alas, such activity has been practiced by criminals for decades, so regulations like FATCA make it very touchy and more expensive than I’d prefer to establish such a hedge.
H always claims that you can’t hedge the end of the world. In an era of crumbling US hegemony, the world is getting bigger fast and I seem to hedge the end of our world to sleep well at night. With personal security somewhat established, I seek to gain an iota of worst-case financial security, bourgeois as that sounds
Is anyone else indulging their inner prepper, or am I alone in these musings? Has anyone else found a reasonable way to commit 5-figure quantities of capital to non-US markets without resorting to Bitcoin or suffering from the concentration risk of an ETF-free FATCA-compliant portfolio?
Hope for the best; prepare for the risk-adjusted worst…
This would be an excellent topic for our fearless leader H to muse.
Hear, hear! I worry that it’s too niche a topic for him. However: as wide open as his eyes are about the state of the rule of law, and with great appreciation for his self-preservation instinct as documented by his personal anecdotes, I would be very keen to see his thoughts on the matter of contingency plans.
If it’s not too personal a topic, H, or if you can approach it with Knausgard-like detachment, I suspect more than a few readers would be appreciative.
Gold, the old remedy for end of the world fears. A Russian neighbor just bought 60oz, even with prices above $3000. He claims is the easiest hedge.
Good point; physical gold-in-hand is an option. Naturally it comes at a huge premium right now, and it has issues that H has enumerated at length when seen as an investment. I worry about transporting any significant quantity, but also haven’t done any homework here. Provided one pays all of the relevant duties or whatnot, it might be a similar option to my euro-checking account, but with even less risk, in a flight scenario.
My original musing was more about establishing a capital presence in the EU, but not via US-intermediated financial channels. Real estate is the obvious route here but it requires a significant commitment of capital.
My euros dwindle over time, as the rate on “high yield” savings doesn’t match inflation. Let’s classify EU cash and gold, then, as hedges that bear a cost. Adding to my cost-bearing hedge might be attractive.
In the meantime, I continue the search for the elusive 5-figure hedge that grows in value over time, or at least keeps pace with the market…
Head to Paris. Great city.
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/travel/retirement-abroad-paris-france-experience-43e6d213?st=maaYTS&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Alas, I need labor income to survive and my job is only moderately portable; my spouse’s job is not portable at all.
For me, fleeing to the safe haven of the EU is a fallback plan – something to do if my life or freedom is in danger. I accept that in this eventuality I’d need to abandon my house, which would essentially zero out my life savings. The goal is to try and prepare for that worst case transpiring in a way that would leave me with SOME amount of assets with which to try and rebuild my life.
There’s an argument that I shouldn’t bother and should just accept starting from zero as a refugee if worse comes to worst. Residency rights and basic proficiency in French, German, Italian and Spanish mean that I would have an easier go than most of the world’s political refugees.
Still, a man can’t help but try to cover contingencies.
As for where to flee: Paris area might be nice; I’ve always favored Barcelona. I am sure there are second- and third-tier cities in France and Spain that I’d find more hospitable than the regional hotspots. But I’d head for a hotspot to begin my sojourn and figure things out from there.
We haven’t even seen most of the DOGE impact yet. But we are seeing a growing impact of Measles in the South West. Bullish chaos.
Oh no, heaven forbid the market dips when it’s got a Fed put—and now a Trump put too! Don’t worry, SPX will moon past 6,000 and magically fix everything. That’s the real issue, right? God forbid the economy experiences a tiny, self-inflicted correction. Cue the outrage. But relax, rate cuts and QE are on the way—Daddy Powell’s got it covered. Why stress?
See today’s weekly for a broader perspective!