Jerome Powell said some things on Friday.

Things like the US economy’s still in a good place despite… well, despite some evidence to the contrary of late.

And things like uncertainty’s running high, particularly regarding US trade policy.

He spoke at a monetary policy forum in New York, convened by the University Of Chicago’s Booth School. If you ask Powell, “most” measures of long run inflation expectations are stable. The context there’s obviously the dramatic overshoot on the five- to 10-year University of Michigan series, which shot up to the highest since 1995 last month.

The figure above’s an obligatory reminder: At least one key measure of medium-term price growth expectations isn’t “stable” in the US, or at least wasn’t last month.

Powell also nodded to indicators which suggest consumer spending slowed earlier this year after a strong finish to 2024. Both retail sales and real PCE disappointed in the latest readouts, suggesting a demonstrable deterioration in household sentiment’s beginning to impact purchasing decisions following pull-forward in Q4, when Americans endeavored to get ahead of expected tariff-related price hikes.

He did concede that tariff angst is pushing up near-term inflation expectations, but later said it’s not appropriate for the Fed to react to “one-time” price increases. The path down to 2% inflation on a sustainable basis is still likely to be “bumpy” in places, he said, reiterating one of his go-to talking points, while emphasizing, as usual, that the Fed has the luxury of waiting for “clarity.”

He mused about productivity, and said the US should invest in government data, which he called “incredibly important.” America’s macroeconomic statistics are the “gold standard,” Powell said. (Wait until Howard Lutnick overhauls the process — a new “gold standard” for data and statistics to compliment America’s “golden age.”)

Also during the Q&A, Powell suggested that any costs associated with a careful approach to policy changes are “very, very low.” The Fed can wait and should wait, he said, adding that the US economy’s fine, and doesn’t need the Fed to do anything.

As for Donald Trump’s policy platform, which mixes tariffs with mass deportations and immigration restrictions, Powell was diplomatic. “It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter,” he said. “[W]e are focused on separating the signal from the noise.”

Good luck on that, Jay.