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America’s Betrayal Of Ukraine Is An Existential Gamble
Call me an alarmist if you must, but I'm not sure Donald Trump and his Republican party are committed to America's treaty obligations regarding mutual defense.
Trump's big on reciprocity, even if he can't pronounce it, and defense treaties to which the US is a party are unavoidably one-sided. It's very difficult to conjure a scenario where the difference between the US homeland falling to an invader or not turns on the arrival, by sea, of a NATO fleet ("Sweden! Thank God you're here!"), and if
Events of this year will be written about in history books for a long time henceforth. I do believe your take is the most realistic of how this period will be viewed in the future.
Trump’s motivations are transparent: he wants to enrich himself at any cost and put himself at the head of a kleptocracy, the rest of the world be damned. He’s trading on the last century of wealth and power that the US built on the back of the blood and sweat of previous generations and doesn’t care about the consequences as long as he “wins.”
I don’t know how long Trump will live, but watching Vance lately has me concerned. Does he believe what he says? What’s his end game?
Regardless, the people getting duped into believing that isolationism is the answer don’t seem to understand that our wealth is built on Pax Americana, even with its flaws. The dividends we get from the current world order far outweigh the expenses we incur. It’s unbelievably short-sighted to assume that we don’t benefit from being the world’s policemen.
That’s not to say we shouldn’t do more to support certain industries and better jobs here, but the ham-handed protectionism of the Trump administration is not going to help all those people who think we’ll magically return to the golden age of American manufacturing. I just worry that if the economy goes south in a major way, Trump will be happy to take liberties with presidential powers to a degree that would make his current power grab look quaint. He openly stated yesterday that it’s ok for him to ignore the law if he’s doing it to “save our country.” Meanwhile, the cowards in Congress are either cheering him on or hoping the courts do the dirty work so they don’t have to stick their own necks out. The stupidity and malice of so many people is taking us down a dangerous path.
While it’s lamentable from an European perspective, this is one point where I agree with Trump on the level of logic. Europe has been completely complacent about its defense. America only gets to rob us of our security because we have refused to be guarantors of our own security. America can only deny Europe presence at the negotiating table because it’s frankly clear European support to Ukraine is insufficient for Ukraine to keep going if Washington pulls its support. We have lived in a world of illusions, and now reality is showing through.
I sincerely believe we can’t change this fast enough because of our political system, which is sclerotic and slow and liable to kick the can down the road while dealing with welfare issues, so if this doesn’t end up with risk for my life it’s only because Putin dies before he has the chance.
Prior to 1940, the United States was complacent about its defense, relying particularly on British sea power. The fall of France changed that thinking quickly. Maybe this sequence of events will do that for Europe.
Maybe I’m the only one, but I do find it ironic that France, Britain, and Germany now get to feel the pain of getting shut out of talks regarding its future considering it’s what European powers famously did for centuries until Suez in 1956.
Tit for tat impoverishes all. They made their mistakes in a vane attempt to hold on to power and wealth. Result is they lost both. We are on the way to losing out exceptionlism, squandered by The Orange.
Maybe. But if the previous wars in Europe and Trump 45 didn’t, why would this? Everyone just keeps assuming things will turn out for the best.
Sure, Europe has militarized quickly previously. One big problem with historical comparisons is the culture is not the same anymore: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/25/sweden-prepare-war-citizens-booklet-crisis
Militarization and military strength needs nationalism. Nationalism is still really out in Europe and individualism is in. But who knows? After all, apparently Musk and Vance think German nationalism might be the answer. Heck, I can’t see Europe being safe either without a strong Germany. But German nationalism… well, results have not always been great.
Not spending trillions of Euros on defense was rational as long as the USA was willing to do so. The same for Japan. The result was nations where the well-being of their citizens surpassed what the people of the USA and Russia “enjoy”, partly due to the amount of money spent on defense by the US and Russia.. Perhaps that “free ride” is over.
But take heart – there is an alternative pathway. Vote for the Musk/Vance-endorsed AfD in the upcoming Germany elections. Support Orban, Kickl, Merloni, LePen and Wilders. They’ll fix it!
You do raise some important points, but it goes back to what we see consistently with Trump: he’s the wrong answer to the right question. The US should ultimately ensure it’s a deterrent to aggression even though the reality is that the US probably won’t go to war against China or Russia directly. However, we should be willing and able to ensure that any aggression will be met with US arms support so that those countries will incur a heavy cost for their territorial ambitions. As long as Ukraine is willing to fight, we should make sure they have everything they need to do so. Same with Taiwan.
Pushing Europe to get its act together is good, but cutting them out of discussions about Ukraine’s future and lecturing them about bringing far-right parties into the fold is not good for the US or the world over the long-run
Putin can’t manage what he has. One other stray thought slides through my goldfish brain once in a while. Congress belongs to the GOP for the moment and it’s watching while DJ dismantles our government Orban style. The courts are mostly owned by the GOP and Trump so we the people have lost control of 2/3 of our democracy. However, there is one piece I don’t think Trump will keep control of, the military. The army, navy and AF have the guns. He does not if they decide he shouldn’t have all the power. This is the only form of MAD we, the, people can count on to save our country.
“However, there is one piece I don’t think Trump will keep control of, the Military…”
While that may be true, I believe there are far more in the ranks of the military that align to Trumps world view than not.
Yes they have been complacent, but enabling a highly skilled psychopath is not the correct way to wake Europe out of it’s slumber. This is just plain stupid or evil position by Trump. The lowest risk route is to be opposing Vladimir alongside our allies. Vladimir will wake Europe out of it’s slumber whether USA is on Europe’s side or not.
I hope that one of those history books will be written by Mr. H.
Preferable to the Musk owned AI version we may get.
H-Man, a bully doing what a bully does with as some say, muzzle velocity. Intimidate by using threats, scarf up what you can and then move on to the next target. He litigates by never testifying in court. Just another tool in the box for intimidation. You would think this could be nothing more than a bad dream, but he has managed to connect with a large segment our society as the savior – a true populist having all the right and simple solutions for any problem. We are not at the 30 day mark and this is going to be a really big mess. Remember we run out of money in March.
It’s not my intention to offend anyone by using the words Hitler, fascism, nazi, but the unimaginable death, suffering and misery caused by their incantation last century makes it our duty to never forget what they are capable of. We live in a time of increasing global danger for the human species (as well as most species on the planet) and our leaders are trying to muzzle the truth. Students of history will realize this is an unwavering indicator that humanity is on the brink of self destruction once again, but we’re supposed to keep our mouths shut. The 3 words in the first sentence are just the start followed by a growing list of others, terrible words like diversity, equality and inclusion. Democracy is already severely wounded when equality must be stricken from all official documents. Our ancestors fought and died for words, words we won’t even say.
Sorry to go on, but the times seem to demand it. What is Ukraine’s great crime. Apparently it’s wanting to be a democracy and to join other democracies for mutual protection. The US in the past has proudly declared its commitment to stand up for democracies wherever and whenever they are threatened by dictators and tyrants. Apparently those days are over if fledgling democracies don’t pay up. We’re stuck together on a ship hurtling through space, leaking oil and guided by leaders fixated on what’s in it for them. We better find a voice and the right leaders before it’s too late and stop cowering about the language we can’t use. What happened to the land of the free and when did it die. It passed away and hardly anyone noticed. We’re now reduced to running a global protection racket where freedom has been reduced to an entry in a bully’s ledger.
Very nice to read this point of view coming from an American. In a very short time, the US has lost a lot of goodwill to its European “allies” and even antagonized some.
The US is right to see that European allies aren’t investing enough in defense, but (1) doesn’t seem to remember it also needs its allies for other purposes as well (e.g. to isolate China and other adversaries by maintaining a joint sanctions regime) and (2) doesn’t seem to remember that whenever European armies get big armies, shit always hits the fan. I thought it was a deal that Germany demilitarized under protection of the US. Now they have to fully re-arm?
There is nothing worse than a situation whereby in 10 years from now, all European countries are armed to the tooth again. And secondly, if the US government just plainly wants to screw over its allies, Europe will just start selling all its advanced chips, chips machines, weapons systems etc, to China, Iran and beyond. If it’s a free for all, why not. The US won’t be able to do anything against it, unless it wants to get excluded from the European market. Because the way they are going, no one wants to do any business with the US anymore.
22 years ago I was having a scotch fueled discussion in Germany with my German friend. One thing lead to another and we started talking about security, Europe, wars and militaries. I asked him about Germany’s feelings about rearming. He responded dead seriously that they didn’t want to go there for fear of where it might lead them.