Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
Disaster Strikes In God-Awful US CPI Report
Oh no! Houston, we have a problem!
Consumer price growth across the world's largest economy was uncomfortably warm in January, hotly-anticipated figures from the BLS showed.
The headline gauge rose 0.5% last month from December, according to Wednesday's update. That was much quicker than expected.
Underlying inflation overshot badly as well, rising 0.4% against the 0.3% consensus. Do note: The unrounded core print was 0.446%, the briskest month-to-month increase since April of 2023.
As the
Just wait until those aluminum tariffs kick in, will be wild!
I wonder if there are people preparing for the day when the President starts to cook the books China style. Data such as this would be first to be manipulated politically. I could imagine a bot (AI?) using publically advertised pricing data coming up with an estimate almost in real time.
I’m sure Elon will be happy to provide a new CPI methodology satisfactory to dear leader. He’ll have his army of personal shoppers use AI to scour the internets for pricing that is more favorable. “It’s a banana, Donald. What could it cost? 10 dollars?”
NO KIDDING. Trump always says what the followers want to hear and the DOES ZIPPO! This was so obvious that they didn’t even have to print it. BUT…. NEXT MONTH WILL MAKE THIS LOOK LIKE A PICNIC.
0.446 rounds to 0.4? I guess I weigh, drink, smoke less than I thought.
Used car px will stay hot, we’re lapping the pandemic car shortages. Food will get hotter, what with avian influenza, workers’ involuntary absenteeism, and Tariffman. Indeed, Tariffman will drive up the prices of most things, unless he can restrain himself (!). Energy won’t decline enough to help, if at all. Any counter-productive production increases US oil companies bone-toss to Tman won’t make up for maximum pressure on Iran and, sigh, tariffs. Insurance is recalibrating px after $25-50BN losses in CA. Fevered techie dreams nothwithstanding, AI isn’t going to DOGE enough workers to help drive down costs and demand in the next few years at least. Rents are starting to turn the corner in even over-supplied areas. House prices are sticky upward, although Congress could derail the market – eliminate mortgage deduction, privatize GSEs. You’d think that there is some interest rate level that should break the housing market, but since low-rate homeowners will just hold tighter while new development dries up, it might take years.
I think Tariffman will become Inflationman before the midterms.
That probably explains why he is pressuring Homans to triple the daily deportation totals. It’s the only major campaign promise he can deliver on. Sadly, that’s more than enough to keep the majority of his base on the bus.
Don’t forget he banned all 10 transgender women from women’s sports, pardoned all those true Jan 6 patriots so they can go back to drinking and abusing their wives, ensured American competitiveness by openly allowing bribery, and saved us all from DEI so we can openly espouse our racist views on twitter without fear.
Certainly all great achievements on the road back to American Greatness! But inflation and “the crisis on the border” were the top two issues according to exit polls.
The pressure to increase the daily deportation numbers brings back memories from when America was great. There was similar political pressure put on the military to increase the weekly “body counts” of Vietcong and North Vietnamese soldiers killed.
The market is holding up remarkably well today. I expected a downdraft. Anecdotally, I consciously did some spending in January thinking I’d rather buy this stuff now then have to purchase it in the middle of a trade war. I understand businesses were also stockpiling. May explain the hot cpi?
I think there was tariff front-running, by consumers and businesses, meaning the next wiggle could be slower demand.
The problem with mass deportations is, it is also net inflationary. So he’s shooting himself in the foot.
Aluminium and steel import is, at the end of the day, import of cheaper energy. So those tarifs will also support energy price. I don’t see how energy prices come down with current Trump actions. Maybe ending the war might help, but that was supposed to be done last month. “We’ll see”.
Aluminum and steel are inputs to or packaging for just about everything. As they migrate through the supply chain that 25% consumer tax could end up looking like a 40% mark-up on everything from a new car to the rotisserie chicken at Costco.
But blame it on Biden is back, so now his base doesn’t have to hold him accountable.