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And Now, The Fed
The Fed will almost surely cut rates at the final FOMC meeting of 2024. In my view, the move won't be warranted.
That doesn't mean a cut at the December gathering won't be defensible, though. Inflation's come down, real rates are positive, jobs growth is slowing (maybe) and the latest CPI release, while far from perfect, at least suggested housing disinflation might've finally arrived.
Further -- and this is probably the best argument if you're the Fed and you're determined to squeeze in anoth
I sure wish they wouldn’t cut next week. Not necessary. Rates will keep falling a bit anyway so rest and see what happens. Doctors have been trying to get my blood pressure to go down for 25 years. My medicine has kept my numbers steady for 20 years. Trouble is the medicine caused my feet and hands to swell. Four months ago, without telling my doc I just quit taking the meds. A month later at my physical lo and behold, my bp is normal. It still is and no more swollen anything. For what seems like forever, the Fed couldn’t raise inflation to their 2% target no matter what they did then we got a visit from da boogie man and whoops 5%+. So we raised rates and dat boogie man starts to shrink. Now we’re stuck at 3%. How about that? The median is the target. Time to give up the meds and watch for a while. (Now all my shoes are too big.)
I love this story.
I resist going to the doctor for anything except something terrible-and even the last time I went in to see a doctor; in hindsight sight, I regretted going. I also made the decision to stop some medications for my 91 year old dad (with diminished cognitive abilities) that were stressing him out when he had to go in to get shots, every 2weeks. Six months later, he is fine.
I am a big fan of Michael Pollan (“Eat food. Not too much. Mostly plants”).
I think the fed should cut. We should lower the rates for the folks without cash. I buy the argument that high rates enrich the rich and push us toward the new gilded age.
Fed took FF up 525 bp in 18 mo. Whether they drop it to 450 or 425 bp in 2024 doesn’t much matter.