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Beware The Bonds?
I have serious reservations about the medium-term outlook for US equities, and to the extent I'm less constructive than I might've been otherwise, it's not because I'm some kind of irritable partisan.
Bonds still seem very skeptical about... well, about a lot of things, but particularly about the notion that a run-it-hot approach to an economy already firing on most, if perhaps not all, cylinders, is compatible with a rate-cutting cycle and tame inflation. When you toss in tariffs and a plan to
Another potential irony of the Trump administration could be a massive crash in crypto once Trump removes any regulation and lets crypto scams run even more rampant ultimately undermining faith in crypto. I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing crypto enthusiasts learn a hard lesson in being careful what you wish for.
Looks tasty.
Nice thoughts and very helpful the balance. Be careful what you wish for is appropriate on many fronts.
The words irrational exuberance comes to mind. Also cognitive dissonance. The deficit is going to skyrocket again with the immediacy of tax cuts and longer term benefits, if any, of wringing efficiencies out of government by the DOGE boys.
Trumps tendencies concern me greatly in any number of areas. The one that terrifies me is his casual disregard for the welfare of bondholders. I thought I read on his last incarnation that he said something like he wouldn’t rule out defaulting on the govt debt.
I no longer believe that the adults in the room will lock him in the bathroom when he starts talking like that.
there’s a disconnect that I can’t grok yet … look at copper. If electrification and digital intelligence are driving factors for no landing, then how can copper not be higher? Somebody is making more? or, there’s no need for more copper to avoid either soft or hard landing. Or, the premise on electric AI is false … any smart folks have opinion?