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A Rich Country
Valuations. Get 'em while they're rich. It's like the old adage says: Buy high, sell higher. You may be a fool, but there's a greater fool out there somewhere.
US equities are up sharply -- astronomically -- from the cycle lows. We don't talk about that a lot these days because who remembers the cycle lows? That was a very (very) long time ago. Joe Biden was still president back then.
Measuring from the bottom in October of 2022, the S&P's up 60% or so, pretty solid for two years' work.
I was chatting with a financially literate friend yesterday how the run up has felt quite excessive. I don’t know when precisely the options market became the underlying of the equities market, but we were chatting about how the greatest stock crashes come about when very smart people take on a lot of leverage.
Trump will be disappointed as the standard Kichin business cycles tell us that the peak is either here now or will be seen in a few months right after is Inauguration. (I was not invited). The fact is that odds strongly favor 2025 as a down year for U,S. equities.