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Gamblers Assemble!
Markets were awake Monday to the possibility that trading the US election based on betting odds was folly.
Maybe the probabilities reflected on betting websites -- which generally showed a surge in Trump odds last month -- will prove prescient maybe they won't, but it was never obvious to me why professionals operating in ocean-deep markets for the world's most important financial assets should take their cues from what, in some cases, are paper-thin markets for election betting, where someone
Trump trade war with China opened the flood gate of Brazilian clear cutting and planting soy.
Pacific port for Brazilian soy is in the works.
I was thinking about that Saturday and then woke up Sunday to the Des Moines’s poll.
JSB – good point on that. It’s another leg of the trend which started thanks to the US embargo on ag product sales to Russia in January 1980. That also helped to kickstart Brazilian soybean and Australian and Argentine wheat production
Not only is the betting market paper-thin, it’s probably heavily skewed towards younger men who bet with their hearts; odds are (heh) that they’re not fans of presidential SNL guest stars. Betting markets do after all to some extent set the odds after the placing of bets and I doubt the odds adjust for the demographic makeup of the bettors.
Did see that IBKR is now a betting site, they call it IBKR forecast trader… might as well be horse in front at the track ‘trader’
I dunno. Last week I was one of the dum dums who thought bro whales with large positions in paper-thin markets were worth trying to exploit. So far, so good. I don’t want any of his vehicles, but I’ll take some of Musk’s money. I suspect he won’t miss it. And hopefully I’ll still have a country where I can spend my winnings…