Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
Pushing The Chips
US equities, and particularly big-tech, looked shaky midweek.
Headed into the afternoon on Wall Street Wednesday, the Nasdaq 100 was almost 2% lower. Some of that -- a lot of it, maybe -- was idiosyncratic. There was a smattering of company-specific news which undercut key names, including Apple. But it was probably fair to apportion some of the "blame" to ongoing up-creep (if you will) in US yields.
The selloff in bond land's getting pretty spicy now. At one juncture, 10s breached 4.25%. We'r
For all we know, Musk could be influencing the betting playgrounds.
Would seem a reasonable speculation.
I wonder if investors have sussed out what will happen to BRICS in a Trump scenario? I could imagine giving Vladimir a more free hand to mischief might impact the value of the dollar.
$ARM firing a shot across $QCOM bow ain’t helping either
Reports I have read suggest there is market manipulation on the betting sites. I don’t know what’s going to happen but the betting sites are best ignored. Polling is suspect too but I am with H. Very hard to see what’s actually going on right now.
I am quite confident the betting markets are being manipulated – intentionally or not. I have no clue on how accurate/not the polls are. The pollsters themselves don’t know, and the actual margins are likely much smaller than the polls’ theoretical error bars. Like it or not, we’re all in the dark.
Yeah, I’m not convinced it’s all intentional to be honest. With the Sept FOMC meeting, for example, it was fairly obvious that the people betting just weren’t very sophisticated. This is obviously a different sort of bet, but I think the same still applies. I’m sure there’s some manipulation going on, but some of it’s prob just people chasing it which, now that I think about it, isn’t all that different from “traditional” markets / assets: people chasing other people’s bets / momentum.
After all, even supposedly sophisticated investors make big bets that push prices wildly around and lose a bunch of money. Equity investors do it all the time. Lately STIR investors (traders) seem to be joining in. People in the grip of Magadelusion would seem just as able to make mistakes as the smartest-guys-in-the-room aka bond investors.
I still think it’s as close to 50/50 as you can get, but very interesting to watch the action in long bonds. While Trump is running on every populist and nationalist proposal he can gin up to hoodwink his voters, the likelihood of the inflationary aspects of his agenda going anywhere are low except maybe the tariffs. The House and Senate will be very close to even, so it won’t take many votes to torpedo his crazier tax proposals (Trump certainly won’t care about the populist tax cuts passing once he’s in office) and I’d be willing to wager a lot of money that the tax cuts that make it through will skew heavily to the wealthy. Maybe that’ll trigger some wealth effect, but we already had a decade plus of policies that drove asset inflation without resulting in real inflation.
In the meantime, I’ll continue shaking my head and wondering how we are even at this point where the race is tossup. How many people need to point out that they would never actually do business with Trump or that his own staff from his first term have frequently warned us that he’s unfit or just the fact that if our own parents acted the way he did, we’d take away their keys and start looking into assisted living facilities?
Agreed on some of his Peronist give-away tax promises. But he does not need Congressional approval to impose tariffs. Did he seek Congressional approval in his first term? Did Biden need to get Congressional?
Stephen Miller already has a master deportation strategy planned out and ready to roll. Including legal teams and legal strategies to deal with any silly nonsense from the ACLU and such. I wonder if he is lining up bus and rail car capacity to move people down to the Mexican border. That’ll be mighty ironic given his family history.
Inertia makes it easy for fund managers to shrug and say “Oh it’s all bombast. He won’t actually try that stuff,” Or that the courts will block him. This Supreme Court?
Listen to Trump’s own words – these are his two core policy pillars. Outside of getting even, of course.
Micheal Flynn has called for releasing the gates of hell as retribution on a list of 350. Journalists might be recognizing they will be in tier two of the retributions list so there has been some digital ink spilled. Tier one is 350 high profile names according to Micheal Flynn underling Raiklin has stated they have 80,000 awaiting deputization by constitutional sheriffs as a force to carry out the retribution. Obviously no central authority can manage 80,000 who each have their own idea of who to charge with treason, or how to carry out punishment.
‘How can we be at the point where the race is a toss up?” Interesting take from Nate Silver this morning. My interpretation… Democrats are looking for a marriage counselor, Republicans are looking for a divorce lawyer. What you want in a divorce lawyer is the meanest ahole you can find – as long as he’s your ahole. That’s the first take that’s made a lick of sense out of Trump’s continuing support. My two cents.
I’m confident it is being manipulated. I followed them closely in 2020 and made a lot (for me) along the way. There was definitely a pro Trump bias in the odds that could be taken advantage of. Many states that Biden could only lose if polling were off a historic amount were paying out 10% or more. But in 2020 I really believe the bias was attributable to people who had been on the winning side in 2016 being overconfident.
I read some articles a few weeks ago about repeated $7.5 million bets on Trump moving the odds in leaps and bounds in little news, but I’m too busy to find them right now. That accorded with what is seen in the movement of the odds.
I think it’s a positive for Trump to be seen as the favorite, and a lot of people backing him have the money and will to do this. Or it could be for another reason. Whatever the motive I do believe it is happening. And I do think independent of that, there are more Trump fans that want a piece of the action than Harris supporters.
Today I picked up some Harris at 38 cents. I am not making a prediction. I just felt the true odds of of her winning are significantly better than 38% as things stand.
Thanks for the Raiklin mention. He’s also a lawyer who wrote the Pence Memo which set in motion the 2020 vote count challenges. Aa such, he is a loyal MAGAlyte who has Trump’s ear.
But do most Americans actually care about “defending Democracy?” The democrats are idiots for focussing on that in the final days before the election. “Kamala’s open border” and Kamala’s inflation is all you hear on Trump campaign ads. This may be up there with the dems focus on transgender rights in 2016.
Yes, but there’s a difference in terms of measuring support of the candidates between 300,000 small wagers averaging $100 moving the odds and four $7.5 million wagers as recently happened moving the odds.
The top echelon of Trump supporters are spending sums that dwarf these $30 million in wagers. Why wouldn’t it make sense for them to move the gambling markets to give the appearance of momentum? If they are paying an average of 13 cents more than the likely true odds, the net present value of the investment of $30 million is only $4 million under water to them. That’s chump change.