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Release The Animal Spirits?
Wall Street strategists -- as a group, I mean, I'm not singling anyone out -- seem pretty determined to goal-seek a bullish outcome for US equities in a "Trump win" scenario next month.
To be clear: That's not hard to do. In Trump's preadolescent mind, the stock market's the best barometer of presidential success. As such, he'd sooner eat a plate of vegetables than sit idly by in a selloff. We saw that in December of 2018, when he nearly blew a gasket during a harrowing pre-Christmas drawdown.
Your use of the word “braver” is benevolent. I detect a bit of facetiousness. 🙂
Not sure if you saw the WSJ article on October 18 that cited $30M of bets in 4 Polymarket accounts between June and September that could potentially indicate manipulation. However, that article lays out a number of plausible manipulative scenarios. That article is definitely an entertaining read.
It seems like a long-TLT bet right before the election could be a relatively safe play. If Harris wins, it goes up; if Trump wins, it’s already in the price.
The bull looks cute with the Trump hairstyle ?
Nate Silver* is still my go-to for election odds. He’s had it at a tossup almost the entire time Kamala has been the nominee and the needle has moved very little in either direction. People seem to forget that despite everyone assuming Hillary was a foregone conclusion, 538 had Trump at roughly 30% odds which are not terrible odds. The big question is whether or not pollsters are still underestimating Trump like they did in the last two elections or if they’ve overcorrected and now underestimate Kamala. Easy to make a case either way and I agree that I have no idea which way this election will go. I truly believe it’s a tossup at this point.
*For what it’s worth, Nate Silver is no longer with 538, but has his own blog and created a very similar model as the 538 model for this election.
Both Nate Silver and 538 are using fake polls in their averages. The industry hasn’t caught up yet to the fake poll racket.
Plus, neither has been accurate since 2012. The information market is shifting so fast, once reliable experts are failing to keep up.
Many are Repub operatives funneling money through foreign entities to fund the polls. If you want to research an example: look-up American Greatness. They control the TIPP poll. The TIPP poll lies on its website that WaPo listed it as the most accurate poll in 2020. No such evidence exists. However, 538 has it listed as the 120th most accurate (lowest quartile). TIPP has been showing Harris way ahead since August. This week they put out a new poll supposedly showing a Trump surge. There is no Trump surge, it was always a pre-planned narrative, the poll is bogus.
Both Nate Silver and 538 are using fake polls in their averages. The industry hasn’t caught up yet to the fake poll racket.
Plus, neither has been accurate since 2012. The information market is shifting so fast, once reliable experts are failing to keep up.
Many of the dubious polls are Repub operatives funneling money through foreign entities to fund the polls. If you want to research an example: look-up American Greatness. They control the TIPP poll. The TIPP poll lies on its website that WaPo listed it as the most accurate poll in 2020. No such evidence exists. However, 538 has it listed as the 120th most accurate (lowest quartile). TIPP has been showing Harris way ahead since August. This week they put out a new poll supposedly showing a Trump surge. There is no Trump surge, it was always a pre-planned narrative, the poll is bogus.
I know his base of die hard supporters are still with him, but a friend and I were recently talking about how we both noticed a lot less ostentatious support for Trump down here in Florida this time. The last two elections the trucks with Trump flags, the signs in yards everywhere, the obnoxious boat parades and other Trump-worship signs were everywhere but now when I walk my neighborhood the Harris/Trump signs are about even instead of 10-1. Maybe the bloom is off the rose?
I’ve been monitoring the polymarket chat the past fees days. It really is a MAGA Incel echo chamber. That in addition to the easily manipulated outcomes should tell you everything you need to know about it. It in no way represents a sober view of the election odds. If anything, the market maker realizes MAGA Incels are easily dupped and are in on the fake polls racket.
The only real data that matters right now is early voting. Most swing states are inconclusive at this point IMO, but MI and PA show large Dem leads (>150k and > 300k respectively) even though the Repubs have been pushing early voting this cycle.
Most polls these days are bogus, Repub operatives. Legit polls generally show a tie or Harris up 2-4%. Most legit polls generally show a slim Harris electoral college advantage.
In the end, it’s the same as it always is, turnout in voter types in swing states (7 this cycle) will determine the outcome.
Polymarket is (in theory) entirely non-US bettors and has recently logged some very large ($30MM) bets that could be market-distorting.
I think the knee-jerk reaction to a Trump win will be positive for equities, negative for fixed income, as traders discount resurgent inflation and much larger budget deficits.
Reminds me of the post-election night in 2016. I was walking around the block, drinking, with a friend. He told me he was scared, wasn’t I scared? In one of my less empathic moments, I told him “Bill, you’re scared because you’re a gay man who consults for liberal non-profits, I’m a straight man who works on Wall Street, why should I be scared? Disgusted, sure, but scared?” Which turned out to be professionally correct, but overall wrong.
The notion that the market favours Trump is very confusing. You have to throw out all the years of work on leadership and management to believe it (the supposed basis upon which the market is predicated). With all the chaos that follows Trump, the market is basically saying you can put a monkey at the wheel of a steam shovel and everything will be fine. It’s incomprehensible.
Gold may have been telling a different story than stocks.
And perhaps a few ostriches pulled their heads out of the sand over in the bond market today.
But most of the the flock continues to take comfort in the belief that “oh, he’s just talking to his base and won’t do all that crazy stuff.” I find that to be astonishing.
But I hope Wilson’s post-Trump victory rally possibility is right so I can further reduce my equity holdings before businesses and investors are reminded that populism is NOT always business friendly. Ask most Argentine business owners how things were under Juan Peron.
The bankruptcy king win would likely usher in stagnation and inflation if his stated policies are fully implemented. I cannot imagine this would be a scenario which would ignite animal spirits, except for those who are prone to lose their shirts. There would be a push up but like DJT stock the push up will be short lived. With interest on debt now a significant part of our budget the effect of stagflation could be the scenario Albert Edwards has been preparing us for.
I am positioned for a Harris win by being fully invested and taking on additional debt recently for an EV. I believe the old oil economy is going to die, just when and how bad is the question. I spent the majority of my career directly in energy and see the writing on the wall. All these larger companies care about is lowest cost and solar is the cost leader. It is not however leading sufficiently to pay for massive upgrades, but that is a coming around the bend.
Polymarket doesn’t allow US citizens to place bets, so those odds are determined by foreigners. Not to say some degens don’t skirt the ban.
No. I mean, yes, but also no. The bar to clear to place bets there for US citizens is much lower than you’re suggesting. You just need a crypto wallet and a VPN, which pretty much everybody has. It’s not “some degens,” it’s more like “everyone younger than 60.” Ha.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-22/polymarket-cracks-down-on-us-bettors-ahead-of-presidential-election
That bar was pretty low and the ability to place was implied but thanks for the 2024 technology lesson. So are you suggesting a majority of these bets are US citizens?
What I’m suggesting is that if you have 15 minutes and $49 for a VPN subscription, you will be up and running on Polymarket within that same 15 minutes. I’m not sure I can be any clearer on this: The bar isn’t “pretty low.” There is no “bar.” You need: 1) a computer or a phone made after ca. 2010, 2) an internet connection, 3) a few bucks for a VPN, 4) a crypto wallet and 5) 15 spare minutes. It’s just that simple.
If you’re silly enough to get on there and draw attention to yourself and your username lands you in a Bloomberg article, well then… I don’t know. Don’t take up coke dealing, I guess. Because you’re probably the type of person who’s going to buy a Rolex before you buy a Glock, and that won’t end well. For everybody else — i.e., for people with some sense about them — there’s no real bar to “safe” entry on Polymarket.
Guess I’ll start posting my tech support questions here from now on! Does that come with the standard or plus subscription? Ha!
Here is a great way to hide the country of origin on a VPN.
https://surfshark.com/
is it just bias for ‘Wall St’ to cheer on the R candidate?? This reveals itself in the ‘heads I win, tails you lose’ logic of ‘the market goes up under a trump win b/c he’s whatever, and if mkt goes down under his win, its b/c market already priced in a win’….but nothing in regards to Biden’s pro growth litany of legislation, that, if one feels legislation drives markets, has the sp500 on track for the 3rd best election year performance since 1936.
imho i think the wall st bias is a collection of individuals who only vote for tax policy. the whole R party is single-issue voters: taxes, immigration, military, abortion rights, covers 90% of them.
https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/30/polymarket-trump-election-crypto-wash-trading-researchers/ Interesting…