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Market’s CPI Fixation Returns After Hot US Jobs Report
Needless to say, the marquee macro release this week is the September US CPI report.
The headline index -- i.e., the all-items gauge -- isn't the problem, although it may be soon if developments in the Mideast escalate such that Israel targets Iran's oil infrastructure. Headline CPI probably rose a wholly pedestrian 0.1% in the US last month, and just 2.3% YoY.
At issue, as ever, is the core print. Economists expect to hear that underlying prices rose 0.2% from August, and 3.2% from the same p
My question is what happens if cpi undershoots or if prior months are revised down? Baseline is 1/4 cut. A hot cpi might pause November or more likely December.