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US Labor Market At ‘Inflection Point’
Guess what? US jobless claims are still low.
Thursday's initial claims headline printed 225,000, above estimates but comfortably within the forecast range. Four-dozen or so economists tossed out guesses than ran the gamut from 215,000 to 230,000. The prior week's print, which counted as a four-month low, was revised marginally higher to 219,000.
The week-to-week increase is immaterial for the policy narrative. If anything, it just underscores the resilience of the US labor market, which was al
I have been off in my forecasts. I thought we would be in recession by mid 2023. We got close when the regional banks were almost enslaved in a systemic run. When that dragon was slayed, it has been a decent economy faced with some adjustment challenges, like high mortgage rates and home prices, and residual inflation. I still believe the economy is more vulnerable to a shock than is trypical. Until we get one though, the economy is still ok enough to get a soft landing. Who knows, a regional war in the mideast, China imploding, an extended port strike, a hung us election or a myriad of other events could change things. At this point who knows?
“Oh, and AI was “blamed” for 5,616 of last month’s job cuts. According to Challenger, robots have replaced 12,742 humans in 2024, nearly all in tech. That’s three times as many as 2023.”
This goes a long way towards justifying an implied $157 billion valuation OpenAI and supports the firm’s forecast of $900 billion annual revenue by 2029.