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My Only Friend, The End…
It's probably time to start gaming out post-Khamenei scenarios for Iran.
Joe Biden's (possibly errant) allusion to prospective Israeli airstrikes on the country's oil infrastructure indicated that, at the very least, Benjamin Netanyahu has broached the subject with the White House, and very likely the possibility of hitting Iranian nuclear sites too.
Asked earlier this week if he'd support an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program, Biden said "the answer's no," but on Thursday, when pressed
Excellent summary, I can’t see Netanyahu losing this advantage.
I think it’s more than he needs to press it (his advantage) now if he’s going to press it. Hezbollah’s beat at the command level, but not at the rank-and-file level and not at the localized political level either. The longer those Beirut strikes go on, the more furious the locals will be, and the longer the IDF sticks around in those border towns, the more Israeli soldiers will die. If he (Bibi) wants to do it, he needs to do it now. There’s no guarantee that Trump will win in November and the death toll for the IDF in Lebanon will be much higher by then. I’m (obviously) not promoting violence nor regime change, here. All I’m saying is that from where I’m sitting — which, thank God, is an ocean away — Israel’s best chance to topple the regime in Tehran is right now. This week.
And as you and some others here have posted, it’s not at all guaranteed that the next Iranian regime will be a peaceful pro-US, Saudi-friendly and Israel-tolerant line-up. As we saw under the shah.
That’s not as impossible as it may seem given Iran’s relatively well-educated and, amazingly, US-friendly populace, at least in the cities.
It’ll be interesting to see if their desire for liberalism will be able to overcome the national shame when Israel seeks to trigger regime change via humilating military strikes.
And as the hapless Houthis have shown us, it would not be easy to foil Iranian efforts to stymie oil traffic in the Persian Gulf. The US and Israel do not have an abundant supply of the $2.5 million missiles we use to repel drone attacks. I can remember the last episode there where sea mines disrupted things pretty well. (Iran claimed they had been placed by a “mysterious hand” as I recall.)