For the second time in six months, Iran fired missiles at Israel.
Tuesday’s barrage, which the IDF unironically criticized for endangering millions of civilians, came as Israeli troops entered Lebanon for what the military described as “limited” raids on Hezbollah infrastructure.
The IRGC cited the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last week and the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, in July, as justification for the missile volley which, like the last one, had virtually no chance of doing any serious damage. The Pentagon announced Iran’s intentions hours in advance, as did the IDF. Lloyd Austin said US assets in the region were “well-postured” for any eventuality.
“The air defense system is fully operational,” Daniel Hagari told Israeli citizens, moments before Iran’s hapless retribution arrived. “You may hear explosions, which could be the result of interceptions or impacts.” To the shelters you go. Or under a freeway. Put your trust in God. And in the Dome. God bless this Dome.
On-the-ground reports from Tel Aviv described a discernible difference in the nature of the thunder. As one Washington Post reporter put it, “[these] sound like heavy warheads exploding — very different from the more familiar sound of air defenses intercepting Palestinian rockets.”
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris — or perhaps I should say Kamala Harris and Joe Biden — watched from the Situation Room. The White House ordered the US military to “shoot down missiles targeting Israel.” Again, the only way Iran was going to do any real damage was by accident. The same was true on April 13 when, after nearly two weeks of deliberations, the regime finally got around to “avenging” Mohamad Reza Zahedi, a uniformed IRGC officer who ran the Quds’ operations in Lebanon. He was killed along with seven of his deputies in a brazen IDF strike on Iran’s diplomatic compound in Damascus.
In Beirut on Tuesday, militants who’d be advised to stay out of sight lest they should be carbonized where they stand, fired celebratory gunshots when the IRGC announced the missile launch. In Tehran, locals shouted about how great God surely is.
Do note: Most everyone on every side of this insanity spent Tuesday praying. For the lives of their own families. For the death of someone else’s. For it all to stop. And for all manner of other things, besides. Never does it occur to either side that this might not be god’s work or will. That this “bloody inanity,” as I called it a few weeks back, is the handy work of god’s greatest mistake. And that stopping it is as simple as… well, as stopping it.
Initial reports suggested no one was killed in Israel Tuesday, although the IDF cautioned they were still assessing the situation. By contrast, lots of people were killed in Gaza and Lebanon. And three in Syria, including a TV anchor, now that you mention it. Israel and the US downed all, or at least most, of the Iranian missiles which posed a threat to Israeli population centers. That said, video shot from a hotel in Tel Aviv underscored the proximity and, in some respects, the reality, of the threat. Some of Iran’s missiles did make it through, even if they fell harmlessly on depopulated areas between the river and the sea.
Hagari was a voice over for the entire episode. He narrated it for Israelis from start to finish, almost in real-time. When it was over, he promised “consequences” for Iran. “We have plans,” he said. “We will act in the time and place we decide.” Bezalel Smotrich was… well, he was Bezalel Smotrich. “Like Gaza, Hezbollah and the state of Lebanon, Iran will regret this,” he fumed.
The regime in Tehran — which is by now facing a kind of checkmate where the Guards have to choose between humiliation and giving the IDF an excuse — offered the customary overwrought bombast. “Should the Zionist regime dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue,” Iran’s UN mission shrieked, sounding every bit like a KCNA broadcast.
There were multiple casualties in Israel Tuesday. Just not from Iranian missiles. Several people were killed in what various reports described as a terror-related mass shooting near a metro station in Tel Aviv’s Jaffa neighborhood. Israeli police “neutralized” two gunmen carrying large rifles at the scene. Minutes later, the wail of air raid sirens enveloped the city. And the Iron Dome went to work.
It won’t be long until Netanyahu eliminates the mountain housing Iran’s nuclear work or at least a few of the scientists working there.
Assuming there is something that started the Universe, an actual God from our perspective, then I have to believe that, whatever it is, it’s doubtful that it cares/cared for us at all. At a universal scale, we’re completely irrelevant. It’s only our arrogance, and maybe fear of irrelevance, which makes us believe things like God would send his only child to us, etc..
We kill each other out of self-centered pride and arrogance too.
Benjamin Netanyahu … happiest man on the planet today…
Each missile fired at Israel is not shipped to Russia to attack Ukraine.
Nice silver lining…
I think Israel’s response might reflect its information on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
If Israel believes that Iran is still a long way from nuclear weapons, then it has more options. It can take out some airbases and refineries. Iran will recognize the folly of hitting your opponent with a spitball and getting your jaw broken in return, and go back to snarling in its corner.
If Israel believes that Iran is close to nuclear weapons, then it has fewer. Some of Iran’s spitballs do get through the Dome. When those are nuclear-tipped, Israel’s existence will be at the pleasure of some ayatollah – and Israel doesn’t want things to get there.
Suppose Netanyahu’s hint at regime change is not merely a threat? Put aside whether Israel can achieve that. We shouldn’t assume any leader, especially this one, won’t make a mistake.
Market seems to expect just another brief exchange of fire.
Iran is the third largest OPEC producer, about 3MM bbl/dy.
I don’t think it’s just a threat.
Mr H: How likely is it for Israel to take out Iran’s main oil export terminal fairly soon??
@rem, WSJ writes “Israel sent clear messages back to Iran that it would respond to any hit on Israeli territory, no matter how small or large, and that it didn’t matter if there were casualties or not, the officials said. Israel specifically said it would directly hit Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities, they said.” Where this info comes from I don’t know.
I agree John, that would certainly appear to be a logical consequence.
Taking out Iran’s oil export capabilities may look like a win-win for Bibi. Hey, he can punish both Iran and help his close friend Trump’s election chances by pushing up US gasoline prices. And so punish Biden for straying from his 35+ years of unwavering and unquestioned support of Israel this year. Y
The conspiracy theorists among you might draw a line to the Saudi’s recent move to maximize production. Was MBS alreadty tipped off . Silly? You decide!
I like Ur thinkin’ D…very strategic !!!
Hope you’re wrong. The number and timing of the latest missile barrage was clearly telegraphed to the IDF by an IRCG that HAD to respond but in a way that could be deemed non-escalatory by the Israelis. If that’s accurate, we need to think of it as an olive branch of sorts. Israel should take it as such and step back (even if only temporarily). Failure to do so could cost Israel whatever legitimacy it still has in the court of global public opinion.
It was indeed reminiscent of April 13 in almost every way except that the Guards used all missiles this time, deployed some of their more advanced variants and appeared to give less in the way of notice, although that’s a low bar considering it took them nearly two weeks in April to muster the courage, so pretty much anything would’ve counted as “less notice.”
I think there was a message here, and that message was this: “Well, we have to respond, and we recognize there’s not a lot we can do without risking something we don’t want and can’t handle, but we’re going to do a little bit more than we did last time and you can make of it what you will…”
At the end of the day, though, Israel’s shown over the last two weeks that Iran simply can’t go escalation-for-escalation when the escalations are serious. Everyone knows what happens if Iran slams five missiles into buildings in Tel Aviv and the death toll’s high. Nobody doubts what would come next. Which means this whole thing is a charade on the Iranian side. It seems reasonable to suggest that if Iran threw the kitchen sink into the sky, they could overwhelm the Iron Dome for one strike. But that’d be it. The IDF would wipe them out in a week after that. So, Iran can have one “glorious” strike where they actually do real damage and inflict casualties in Israel or they can have their regime, but they can’t have both. And in the final analysis, only one of these two countries is a nuclear power, and it ain’t Iran.
I agree that the IRCG calibrated the minimum acceptable retaliation for domestic political consumption. What worries me is that Bibi and his henchmen appear to feel they have a clear playing field between now and the election (and maybe further) and may overreach. Then again, who is going to reel them in?
Apparently Iran has been unofficially telling Saudi etc it may attack their oil facilities if Israel takes out its own. Market appears to completely discount this, perhaps correctly.
Hitting Iranian oil export capacity would piss off both the United States and China. Ordinarily I’d say there’s no way they’d take that chance, but who knows with Bibi in charge?
Media reporting Biden’s comments implying US is talking w/ Israel about striking Iran’s oil facilities, w/out the flat tone of opposition he used when asked about striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. And Netanyahu’s regime change hints seem to imply much more than simply hitting an airbase. I wonder if Khamenei will use a body double at the service for Nasrallah?
After some days of complacency, traders increasingly thinking Israel will strike Iranian oil facilities?
Reading Iran has unofficially warned Saudi etc that it will attack their oil facilities if Israel takes out its own. Market clearly doesn’t believe that will happen.
It requires a great deal of strength to be able to live and to forget the extent to which to live and to be unjust is one and the same thing. Luther himself once opined that the world existed only through a piece of forgetful negligences on God’s part; for if God had forseen ‘heavy artillery’, he would not have created the world.
It figures that the only casualty from this fiasco was a Palestinian. Talk about can’t win for losin’:
https://x.com/heisenbergrpt/status/1841273743777153391
YHWH definitely had a beef with that poor guy…