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I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This
Confidence among American consumers slipped in September.
"Slipped" is a bit euphemistic. "Deteriorated" is probably better. If I relied on clicks and web traffic to keep the lights on (God bless the tabloids) I might say "plunged." Or "PLUNGED!"
Anyway, the Conference Board's gauge dropped sharply this month, particularly when measured against an upwardly-revised reading for August. 98.7 on the headline was nowhere near consensus. Economists collectively saw 104. The decline, almost seven poi
The Federal Reserve started cutting rates in July of 1990 exactly the same month as when the Gulf War Recession began. Those who watch steepeners know that the curve has dis-inverted. The inversion presages, the disinversion usually harbinges. I hope I am wrong. Maybe the data will prove that there is no recession and its a soft cushy revolving door landing.
the 90day-10yr is no where near dis-inverting. That pair can tell us about 90days prior to recession. the longer ones people seem to want to watch today, 2yr-10yr has dis-inverted but its ‘harbinger-ness’ is longer, even a year out. soft landings are rare, somuch so that we cant even recognize one when it occurs.
So, good news is good news and bad news is good news?
Ironically, a lot of struggling Americans plan to vote against their own best interests again in 2024. If tax cuts for the wealthy haven’t helped since the 80s, just wait longer.
Cross currents, confusing. One wage tracker shows YOY growth starting an upturn. https://data.indeed.com/#/wages