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I Was Told There’d Be Yen Strength
If you were concerned that the policy divergence between Jerome Powell's Fed and Kazuo Ueda's Bank of Japan might manifest this week in a renewed blast of yen strength to the detriment of risk assets, you can step away from the ledge.
Following the BoJ decision (they were on hold obviously), Ueda all but removed the possibility of a third rate hike in October when he told reporters that inflation risks "appear to be easing" on the back of "recent yen strength." Policymakers have "some time" to
The “everyday economic person” is not getting old, not even a little bit.
Your observation about market information, starting with: “As far as this week goes …” is dead on. One of the first tips my classmates and I got in our doctoral investments class was the same. The prof told us that if you hear a tip on a stock just figure that you are the last person on the planet to hear this info and ignore it. All the money to be made has already been made and you missed it. At one point he held one of the tiny number of seats on the NYSE dedicated to private traders who only represent themselves. He finally sold the seat to move on to bonds, real estate and over-the-counter stocks he could control (no Nasdaq then).
The Yen stopped strengthening right about its previous 12 month high against the dollar hit around New Years. It now sits about 3% down from that level now but still up 11.3% from the July Yensanity low.
I’m heading to Japan now. It was obvious the day it hit 162 in July that I could lock in the best value trip to Japan I’ve ever had by going long about $10K in Yen. I was staring right at it when 162 and change, and thinking what a great deal specific things were going to be. But did I do it? No.