Melt-Up Mechanics

In the lead-up to the September FOMC meeting, professional investors polled for BofA's monthly fund manager survey expressed a lot of faith in a soft landing. At the same time, they identified a US recession -- i.e., a hard landing -- as the top tail risk. There's some cognitive dissonance there, but it makes sense. The data -- or the US data, anyway -- does appear to favor a reasonably benign outcome to the most vexing macro conjuncture since Lehman and before that since the Great Inflation. B