Reflexivity Revisited: What Happens If The Fed Disappoints?

I spent some time late last week talking about the Fed's reflexivity dynamic with markets, and specifically with the US rates complex. One of the many critical nuances of the Committee's most recent media smoke signals (i.e., articles from Nick Timiraos and Colby Smith, both of whom winked at 50bps when the market had left it for dead) is the extent to which it suggests Jerome Powell's either leaning strongly in favor of an upsized move this week or else prepared to deal with the fallout from a