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Who You Gonna Believe? Stocks, Bonds Tell Divergent Recession Stories
One of the key macro-market talking points headed into this month said benchmark equities (i.e., stocks at the index level) came out of August disconnected from rates, FX, commodities and even from their own internals in terms of pricing economic slowdown risk.
To my mind, the best illustration of that disparity was (and still is) the S&P plotted with 2024 Fed-cut pricing.
Regular readers will recognize the figure below. I've inverted the S&P so you can better visualize the ostensible
