A Long Bond Overshoot And ‘Extreme Fed Front-Running’

Bonds are -- self-evidently -- among the best hedges for an economic hard landing, but with yields down ~70bps in four months, it's worth asking if the rally's gone too far, too fast. This time last year, the US long-end was taking a break from a rout that'd eventually push yields to 5%. That episode -- precipitated by oversupply concerns, high-profile short calls and, of course, the Fitch downgrade -- was arrested in early November, when Janet Yellen effectively called time on the selloff. As