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Have Jobs, Will Spend
If you came into Thursday's US economic data looking for evidence of additional labor market softening or slower spending, you were left wanting.
Jobless claims printed below estimates for the week to August 24, while Q2 GDP was revised higher in the second estimate on the back of a sharp upward revision to the personal consumption component.
As the figure below shows, the spending impulse re-accelerated fairly dramatically in Q2. 2.9% stood in stark contrast to the initially-reported 2.3%.
The Dollar General earnings headlines seem to point at a different narrative. But they well be company specific?
Two economies and low-income workers will only “matter” if debt delinquencies rise enough….
Since Powell has pinky-sworn cuts will start in September, good news is good news (we’re getting 25 bp regardless) – and bad news may be good news (we might get 50bp).