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US Jobless Claims Unmoved Amid Labor Market Quandary
US jobless claims were a non-event. Again.
If you were looking for evidence to shift the Fed narrative, it wasn't forthcoming from Thursday's initial filers print which, at 232,000, matched consensus on the nose.
Do note: The update covered NFP survey week. So it did have market-moving potential in the event of a surprise. But, again, there were no surprises.
The prior week was revised higher, but just barely. If you were hard up for headlines on a somnolent summer Thursday, you could shout
Absent a major surprise before the meeting they will be cutting 25 in September. They should have cut earlier and probably should go 50 in September because they did not cut earler, but this is a timid Fomc. Maybe they will stop silly QT? I hope so but I doubt it. Hopefully they will fail to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
I think people underappreciate how fickle all of this really is. Anything can happen between now and September 18.
Agreed, the narrative can turn on a dime, this is humanity were talking about.
Markit PMIs more of the same? Srvcs higher, mfg lower.