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Wall Street ‘Bossing’ Powell Into Big Cuts With Prime Rate At Nosebleed Levels
Long and variable lags. Monetary policy works on long and variable lags.
Impolitely: You hike rates and wait around on something to break. You have no idea what that something's going to be, and even less of an idea about when. That's monetary policy.
This cycle, the lags were longer. Or at least for the economy's "haves," both at the household and corporate level. Well-to-do households refi'd their mortgages at record-low rates, then played the arb between three-handle home loans and five-han
July SLOOS seemed unremarkable. https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202407.htm
While I’d rather be an “have” than an “have-not” (every system favors the rich, honey), I think we should acknowledge that inequality has stopped growing in the US and has indeed gone into reverse.
It’s modest so far but, 10 years ago, I would not have believed such a reversal possible without (a variation of) fascism triumphing at the ballot box…
August Powell/Jackson Hole and Sep FOMC feels like they might be more consequential than typical.
Just wait for Trump, he will fix the Fed! Just ask him.
Yeah. I can’t understand how people in our industry, who supposedly understand our financial and economic systems, would consider voting for a candidate who would, given his druthers, at best destabilize and at worst disintegrate those systems. Sure, there may be a profitable trade or three to be had, but we all benefit from those systems being in working order, and all suffer if the US goes the way of Turkey under Erdogan or the UK under Truss. Doesn’t matter what one’s political persuasion is; simply a matter of rational self-interest.