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Trigger Warning! Sahm Siren Blares Across Markets
The US economy added far fewer jobs than expected in July and the unemployment rose, underscoring a cacophony of recession banter and exacerbating concerns that the Fed might've erred in forgoing the opportunity to cut rates at this month's policy gathering.
The headline NFP print for July was 114,000, nowhere near the 180,000 consensus, 100,000 below the average gain observed over the past 12 months and the second-slowest pace since the last negative print in December of 2020.
We've now had t
There is a decent probability of a cut after the next couple of meetings or 50 bps at the September meeting. The fomc needs to stop dithering and get on with it….
H … your opinion – were economist estimates this bad prior to Covid? I can’t remember and am too lazy to research. Point being – have signals morphed, changed as result of Covid and economists keep using old tools (and missing badly) … that old saying, doing same thing and expecting different results is …
A day late and a quarter point short. The Fed continues to be behind the curve, arrogant in its attitude that it can fine tune the economy. I don’t know if it is worse these days with its more open dialogue with the markets versus the old days of complete secrecy.
I long for the days not so long ago when bad news was good news.
It only takes a data point or two for the prognosticators to turn on Powell. It seems like a month ago everyone agreed the Fed would cut in September and all was OK. They still agree they’ll cut in September but now the opinion is they made a terrible mistake, with the accent on terrible. There’s little room for nuance these days. The market seems to act like an open wound these days. The harmonic vibrations are larger with shorter duration.
They call it a “Content Warning” these days. The word “trigger” was too triggering.
“Content Advisory” would be better. The word “warning” is a little traumatizing to folks who’ve suffered warnings before.
I apologize to anyone I may have hurt by mentioning “suffering”.
And to anyone to whom this apology evokes memories of past painful apologies.