Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
Enablers
The White House is upset with US "ally" Narendra Modi, who wittingly inserted himself into a Russian propaganda campaign earlier this week.
The timing of Modi's trip to Moscow left something to be desired if you're the US. Images of India's strongman hugging Russia's revanchist tsar were gleefully circulated by the Kremlin on the eve of the NATO conference.
Modi's no dupe. He knew this was a big week for Joe Biden, Ukraine and NATO, which is celebrating 75 years of pissing off Russians. Putin
This is yet another leader that is showing the world that Biden is not a threat to take any meaningful action against such disrespect. Yet another reason to find a better candidate.
Neither is Trump. When the big decisions come up he’ll be holding a rally in Cleveland or holed up in his golf cart somewhere.
What exactly do you expect the US president/any US president to do? “If we speak to China, we smash you”?
C’mon, colonialism is over and so is dictating terms to “allies” (vassals). You have to make things attractive. Which shouldn’t be too hard as you got the biggest bestest economy in the world. Just play your cards right and everyone will just come to you without you having to do very much…
Did you even read this? It’s about speaking to Russia, not China. And yeah, we dictate terms. To allies, to adversaries and to everyone in between. We won World War II. And we won the Cold War. It’s still our world. We run it. Everybody else just lives in it. Maybe that won’t be the case 10 years from now, but as of today, it still applies.
Everybody wants to talk realpolitik these days. Well, there it is. That’s the real realpolitik.
10 Years is probably too optimistic after watching how the US has fared in military conflict since the Korean War. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and perhaps Ukraine. Are we becoming what Mao called “a paper tiger”?
What’s America’s record in full-fledged conventional wars?
And I mean, let’s be real. It’s not exactly as if the US lost to the Iraqi military or to the Taliban in the initial invasion. We ran over Saddam’s army pretty much overnight. And the Taliban picked up and ran off into the mountains. We don’t lose head-to-head military confrontations. We lose wars of attrition. We lose asymmetric wars. We lose guerilla wars. We lose battles where we have to wander around jungles, real and urban. We lose battles in mountain ranges were the locals are working with the enemy and there are 200 hostiles for every two Marines. We don’t lose open-field tank battles. Or ship battles. Or aerial dog fights. Or anyway not enough of them to lose an entire war. Bottom line: There are plenty of people like the Houthis who’d be happy to lure a couple of dozen Delta Force into places like Sana’a where we get run around in circles because we don’t where we are and can’t figure who’s who. But I don’t think anybody’s especially excited about the idea of saying — you know — “Ok, let’s everybody put on the jerseys and meet on this date, in this field, or in this ocean or above this city and fight it out face-to-face.” I just don’t think that’s a winnable proposition just yet for any foreign military. Not even the PLA. Again, maybe in 10 years, but not right now. The modern PLA is completely untested. They’re going to do what? Skip the scrimmages and go straight to a Finals series with the ’96 Chicago Bulls? Good luck.
That is the face of modern warfare. Geez, how did the ragtag farmers and plantation owners defeat the mighty, disciplined British army? By lining up like gentlemen and exchanging volleys of musket fire?
Nor will the first war with China likely be fought on the plains of Mongolia. When they move to blockade Taiwan it will be a naval encounter, mostly via missiles. If you care to waste some time (=money) dig into the missile imbalance in the Asia-Pacific region. Which is being made worse when some (but not all) types are sent to Ukraine and Israel. As the continuing shortage of 155 mm artillery shows, it is not easy to ramp up production of even fairly simple weaponry, much less the incredibly complex $3million precision missiles.
You need some bite to back up your bark.
Well, what’s all the waiting around for? Invade! Take Taiwan. Hell, bomb Pearl Harbor. And why doesn’t Kim nuke Seoul? And why doesn’t Putin use battlefield nukes in Ukraine and then move into Poland? And where’s BRICS coin?! Everyone wants it! Launch it! And let the Saudi invoice oil in yuan! I mean, these are all threats that’ve been made. Multiple times. Over and over and over again. So do it. They should pull the trigger and see what happens. The future belongs to the brave!
With India in it, wouldn’t the “sorry basket of deplorables” get too big?
By what metric? What’s “too big” mean?
Also — and I know this is obvious to most of you, but I like to remind folks every now and again just so new readers know what to expect– if you’re looking for “new world order” propaganda or Russia-China rah-rah narratives, this ain’t the place. This isn’t a counter-narrative website. On the establishment to counter-narrative continuum, I’m much closer to establishment. Sorry. (Not sorry.)