“Most borrowers do not have much of an incentive to refinance at current rates,” MBA VP Joel Kan mused on Wednesday.

It was — ummm — an understatement.

As noted here a few days ago, the share of US mortgages with rates anywhere near current levels is just 13%, and that’s after nearly doubling from Q4 2021.

The figure above gives you a sense of things. More than one in five US mortgages has a rate below 3%. That share peaked near 25% in 2021.

So, no, refi activity isn’t likely to be especially robust, and a lot of folks who might otherwise be inclined to list, sell and trade up with a new mortgage, won’t.

Wednesday’s MBA update showed purchase activity ticked up last week, but refis have fallen for a month straight.

Rates on conforming loans slipped three basis points, but remain parked near 7%.

“The recent uptick in mortgage rates has slowed demand,” Kan went on to say, adding that overall mortgage application activity was “essentially flat” over the last seven days.

The purchase activity gauge is bumping along near the lowest levels in three decades. The refi index has been stuck near a quarter-century low since late 2022.

According to the latest Redfin data, pending home sales dropped the most in four months in the four weeks to June 30. Editorializing around the numbers, Dana Anderson flagged some “good news for prospective buyers” in an otherwise challenging market. “There are more new listings to choose from, and monthly housing payments are down nearly $100 from their April peak,” she wrote. Can you feel the savings?!